what's going on everybody welcome back to flagship episode of stacking slabs your hobby content alternative i am brett so excited to be here excited you are here i am having a blast working on stacking slabs delivering content like the flagship episode in so many other shows there is a lot of work being done behind the scenes to continue to deliver first in class content insights and conversations for you the sports card collector i am also very focused on telling the story of individuals who are building businesses in this hobby i believe if we can start building a bridge between the collector the individual who is deeply ingrained who spins disposable income on sports cards to build collections that are a reflection of you and connect that back to the industry side leaders who are working at businesses that are helping shape the hobby if we can help build a bridge between those two groups then we're doing something right and i am working my ass off to do that and it doesn't happen overnight i've been working in startups my entire career and this is not an overnight thing it is a gradual thing and it continues to improve with consistency with conversations with feedback from you the audience member and i believe so deeply in sports cards this industry this hobby that i am going to do whatever it takes to continue to show up each and every damn day to provide topics that get us to pause and think because if we don't pause and think we are just lemmings we are just following everyone else and that's a problem so much of this world is just follow the person in front of you and take what they're doing at face value i don't think that way i don't think that the way i think is always the right way but i can't possibly just sit here and take whatever is being thrown in my face as face value maybe i have some wounds maybe it's because i've spent the last seventeen years in a marketing position thinking deeply about consumer expectations behavior psychology why we do the things we do and how to attract and get the attention of other people and we are in a whole new world we're in a whole new hemisphere there is so much happening online there is so much discourse and so many tactics that are being used to get your attention to get you to think a certain way and to follow that funnel and to make that purchase decision and continue to make that purchase decision and go and go and go until finally we pause and we're like what just happened so i think we need to pause i think we need to slow down i think we need to have conversations like we're having today and today's topic is new releases new releases drive the hobby i'm not going to sit here and talk about every new release that's hit i am talking about new releases as a way to get your attention and push you off track new releases are what shape this hobby new releases drive sales new releases drive the distribution that we're seeing today with breakers online i'll say this upfront i am a fan of all of the flavors in the hobby i'm a fan of so much of what is being done to grow this hobby right now and my goal here is not to be overly critical of any one thing or one way to enjoy the hobby it's more to share my perspective and my observations based on how i see it as someone who has been behind the scenes not in the hobby but in the technology sector to share my observations on how i think about what is going on before we get into all of this i wanna thank my good friends at inferno red technology the engineering team behind some of the biggest names in sports and collectibles like dc sports eighty seven commsea collectors upper deck and ebay from ai powered solutions for startups to full stack platforms for industry leaders their team can tackle your toughest technology challenge they build awesome software for the hobby for leagues and fans and for everyone in between see what they can build for you at inferno red dot com shout out inferno red technology there is a psychology of new sports card releases that needs to get unpacked and we're gonna unpack it here i think about my experience as a a kid going into the hobby shop i think about me being attracted to what just came in what is new what has the rookies this is a very vivid memory for me during the shaq rookie chase i remember it like it was yesterday going into the shop ripping packs to pull shaq cards all the different products and i think about that experience now and how it took over the industry in the nineties and i try to look at that activity knowing what i know now and i think about it i think about the fact that you have a once in a lifetime athlete like shaquille o'neal that was used to elevate an entire category and that category being sports cards manufacturers putting him on boxes him being front and center and as someone who is trying to form an opinion on what i like and what i don't like at the time it's really easy when you've got magazines you've got hobby shop owners you've got manufacturers all aligning around what should excite you and that was just the nineties you take that playbook and you you put it on steroids for this era i mean my goodness the volume of promotion over the last week or so regarding tops chrome football is has been just insane and again i am not saying this promotion is a bad thing i'm saying it is coming at us so fast and so furious that we need to take a step or ten steps back to analyze what's happening and it's not just the manufacturer it's the superstar athlete like tom brady it's the breakers it is everywhere and so i just think we as collectors should consider not just on the tops chrome side but just in general new releases i remember going to and it's it's not just sports cards it's everything i remember going to blockbuster video as a kid i didn't care about ninety nine percent of what was in the store all i cared about was the new release section what just came out what video game can i play what vhs tape can i rent and that's a friday night for me i didn't need to take the time to go look at everything else i just went to the new release site this happens in music this happens in movies it sure as hell happens in sports cards i think collectors have long been dazzled by the new the latest box the next rookie sensation the fresh design if you think about sports cards and you're a historian of sports cards you understand that the sport card hobby was born as a marketing ploy for nineteenth century tobacco companies to entice kids and the tactics have grown more sophisticated i talked about the 90s card company split products between hobby versus retail selling hobby exclusive sets with scarcer inserts and higher price tag to drive demand think about the dawn of two thousand and three exquisite collection you've got five cards and a five hundred dollar box each serial numbered these cards at the time it's like who's gonna spend five hundred dollars for a box of exquisite you look at what those boxes fetch now and it's insane i think today's hobby is even more extreme you've got boxes selling for thousands of dollars not just at hobby shops but you can go open your phone buy into anybreak not only buy into anybreak you can get your own box ripped online you can get your own case ripped online you can do this on every platform imaginable you've got collectors lining up for retail shelves to get restocked you've got channels like tiktok going nuts you've got all the major marketplaces the grading companies are busier than ever and cards now often ship to you based on the hype and the potential or what's possible there is so much happening right now with new releases and it's always been built on hype but now the way it is being displayed is more intense than i think i've ever seen almost across any industry since two thousand twenty two fanatics has shaken up disrupted this entire space fanatics acquired topps for five hundred million dollars and then secured mlb nba nfl trade card trading card licenses under the topps brand fanatics is rolling out attention grabbing programs i was not at the topps industry conference i don't have any new news to share but you think about programs like the debut patch the nfl honor shield these cards are perceived by the entire industry as the biggest the best the number one cards and they are brand new this is a manufacturer decision makers coming up with a pretty damn good idea because it is a good idea to say hey we're going to align with these leagues we're going to align with the players we're going to put these patches on we're going to take these patches off we're going to put them in cards and we're going to promote them as the premium pristine number one cards that should be sold for the most money hell you even have other corporations buying in believing dick's sport sporting goods paul skeen's debut patch don't need to retell that story but think about this this was just manufactured and now it is the card of the industry and it is not only the card of the industry there is everybody in between who is selling product telling you it is the card of the industry this was just manufactured fanatics super impressive i'm not lying like i'm sitting up here talking about it because i'm just sharing like this is impressive they they've even teamed up with tom brady for for for it for god's sakes featured exclusive athlete tom brady's got his own stores tom brady's facetiming you if you pull an auto in his store you got him on live streams you got live streams with athletes this is how we are going to market with brand new product this isn't what the hobby looked like when i was growing up that's for damn sure and it's okay it's it's am a fan of this especially as an individual who is building a small business in this space i would much rather it be flashy glamorous manufacturers taking shots celebrities involved my nephews asking me questions about cards because they saw big polls like i would much rather have it be that way than be static the more people are excited the more companies are excited the more good things mean for small business owners in this space like me the celebrity driven promotions are new fanatics has also released tops now in that program to capture live moments you've got ebay live of it all you've got fanatics live of it all you've got whatnot live of it all you've got box breaks happening around the clock i as i'm recording this can go hit pause and buy buy into a tops chrome football break i was so fascinated by this topic and how things are shaping up that i decided to dust off my gambling boots and do something that i haven't done in a long time or since the the launch of bowman chrome u i had not bought into a break since bowman chrome u i when bowman chrome u this last prod this last release went live i supported my good friend ryan ack card collector two that is what his brand does they love college product and i wanted to be a part of it i'm a notre dame fan and i decided you know what they're the only company i've seen that are ripping you know ten cases of this stuff i'm a notre dame fan like i'm gonna buy into it and i did and it was fun but i didn't like after that day i i didn't buy in any more breaks mostly because i know that i have to have some sort of self control i am not a big gambling guy but it is fun to be entertained to see product to feel like you're a part of something with the chance of maybe getting something this is the way our hobby is organized right now in order for me to be informed and for order for me to be able to talk about it i need to participate and so i don't think i can write it off on my taxes as research but i do think it's really important to try to understand as someone who's up here each and every week talking about what's happening to to to to to buy in and so i did this i bought into wwe tops chrome breaks i bought into a specific wrestler i watched it all unfold and it's fun it's undeniable it's fun and i hit some cards which is even more fun this is not the way that i want to enjoy the hobby but i understand it is the way many people want to enjoy the hobby i would be naive to say that there's not a gambling component that is associated with this space there certainly is a gambling component and i am not here to preach about why you should or shouldn't do it you are all grown ups you can all decide my only feedback would be you need to be responsible and you need to show some restraint especially if it's impacting your finances negatively there's been a lot going on in this industry fanatics acquired pwcc and now has a marketplace there is a whole lot of going on in all of this this entire flywheel of activity the fuel to this is new releases the way new product actually reaches collectors has shifted dramatically fanatics has publicly described the allocation roughly twenty percent of all cards go to big box retailers walmart target forty percent go to your local hobby shops and forty percent go to breakers in other words about half of every product is intended for internet box breaks operations this is a stark change from decades past where box breaks barely existed i remember getting back into this space it breaks on facebook breaks on instagram now it is a pillar of this industry and again i am not speaking out against box breaks i think for people who want to be a part of the action want to get their hands on what is brand new it provides an option but you got to be responsible and old timers would say well i can't stand box breaks because i can't go to my local hobby shop and afford wax anymore i'm not i'm my mindset on all of this is i can't change the industry i can't change what is happening around me what i what i can control is sharing my opinion on matters and that's what i try to do here on stacking slabs think hobby shops have reacted tops and fanatics imposing new rules that ban shops from reselling inventory online or b2b channels forcing shops to sell in store only like there are some rules in place there's a lot going on direct to consumer has grown fanatics sells its own tops branded packs via its website and live auctions you've got tops now which i mentioned limited run print on demand and sold directly online during a narrow window i'll tell you this i dig the tops now program i do i i'm a moments guy and i've i was always skeptical of it but when i started to look at tops now and pair it with my love of wwe it started to make a whole lot of sense there is a lot going on in this industry and it is on us to just be aware and to analyze and to try to decide what's for you what's not for you i think all of these changes play on well known cognitive biases the most important is fomo when a breakout rookie debuts or a company hypes up a new product collectors panic buy fear of missing out drives more regrettable purchases than any other factor whenever a player goes viral or has momentum card prices spike within hours only to typically crash later in short hype begets a feeding frenzy anchoring bias also skews perception collectors remember a card's peak price so when it dips fifty percent below that high it still feels like a bargain even if it's true that it's much lower this means after every boom prices remain propped up by nostalgia for the peak the loss aversion compounds the problem people hate selling at a loss so they hoard cards they once overpaid for how many times have you heard i can't take a loss on this this is what i got in on this is my price that might be your price but that's dead inventory because it's not our fault that you bought based on the way the hobby is trying to get you to buy narrative is another powerful driver i mean how many times have you heard that the i mean the rookie is the next michael jordan we we hope i think we're on the other side of that with anthony edwards at this point but i don't know they push collectors to buy on belief not fundamentals new releases often come with heavy storytelling celebrity endorsements rookie setting parallels that make cards seem like we must have them under fanatics narratives are woven into every release commemorative seals patch cards for championship jerseys elite rookies all to sell a dream in such an environment it's easy to confuse marketing hype with intrinsic value it is on fanatics to sell the dream that's marketing that's building momentum that is what they should be doing it is on us the collector to understand the game that is being played and not fall into traps that make us uncomfortable make us think negatively of collecting cards or put us in a bad financial position so many people bitch and complain about the industry take some responsibility there is stuff happening that you have no control over it is on us as collectors to take some responsibility live box breaks and social media have magnified these forces you've got unboxing videos which tap into psychology that drives viral viral moments the blend of mystery joy risk and instant gratification this is like this is the ingredients that all of the algorithms across all the social platforms want for a video to get pushed all you have to do is open up a box it has it all and this gets pushed out and distributed to you the collector and people who are thinking about collecting watching a streamer suddenly pull a ten thousand dollar card can trigger vicarious excitement and spur viewers to chase that adrenaline themselves there's also a strong sense of community at any hour hundreds of people share in the thrill of opening packs i just told you i did it last weekend there's a connective story here which is amplified by the curiosity of the consumer and anticipation you put these together it is a impactful combination i think in short the break streamers' audience is hooked on a dopamine hit of maybe seeing a big poll and the fomo of missing out if they don't play moreover transparency of modern markets means emotions flip faster social media lets us see every blip in prices and every big pull think about that we see all the big cards a week or two after the products dropped when we were growing up collecting cards it was all a mystery there was no internet we didn't know if these things were real or not so with so many forces pushing us to spend how do we as collectors stay in control i think about this all the time i think about things like questioning the hype just because tom brady touts a set or release and it comes with fanfare doesn't make it a good buy look beyond the marketing you ask is this a featured player truly exceptional or is the story someone just pushing we've got to be aware of these emotional narratives got to compare prices to reality before purchasing check apps like cardladder use those tools they're here for us evaluate scarcity accurately it's on you the collector to do this many new releases boast limited runs but you got to ask specifics get in the weeds try to clarify illuminate what that scarcity means consider your own timeline are you buying a card for a quick profit or hold long term short term flips are risky in these volatile markets if the project is investing consider adopting maybe a contrarian stance i do this all the time if i think so strongly about one thing i try to just tell myself to think the other as a way to slow myself down and mitigate risk you've got to factor in costs and alternatives box prices of soared calculate how much per card and compare when you really get into the data you start to see if it's really worth it or not setting budget limits is really important pausing delaying reflecting very important guard against your own bias guard against the bias of other people sports cards in this hobby thrives on what is new the next big thing will always get the attention the fanatics era simply cracks the volume much higher turns that knob up a few notches exclusive deals celebrity tie ins and omnipresent live breaks means every release feels like an event again it's master marketing it really is you think about the funnel the way they're getting people to look get their attention consider purchase and do it again it's crazy man they're masters at it but with great hype comes great risk you got to remember virtually everything in this market is packaged to sell a story there's a lot of narratives you got to understand what you're buying and what you're selling if you question every flashy claim and consider the underlying value you'll walk away from hopefully this episode with a stronger mindset or outlook as the forces try to grab your attention you can't let fomo or flashing marketing make the decision for you in the long run the collector who thinks independently not just follows the herd or follows someone else like lemmings falling off a cliff ends up with the better collection and the better deals long term horizons not transactional not short term we love cards i love what's happening in the industry i do i do this is an awareness piece this is here to get us all to stop think slow down we need to think we can't not think independent thinking is important you take your independent thinking and you apply it to research tools data and you will be just fine keep growing keep building your damn collections if you're liking what i'm doing over here make sure you tell a damn friend hit the follow-up button run on over the patreon group do all the things appreciate you the loyal listener of the stacking slabs podcast i am fired up thank you so much take care we'll talk to you soon