welcome back to another episode of stacking slabs flagship episode this is your hobby content alternative i am brett builder here at the stacking slabs network appreciate you being here carving out a little time in your day to listen to the content that we're producing for the sports card collector whether you're listening to these episodes while driving to work dropping your kids off going on a run working out cutting the grass doing all of the things that we do on a day to day basis i hope this episode can enhance your perspective on the hobby and give you some sort of entertainment in the busy weeks that we all have there is a topic that i just can't stop thinking about and i think about it all the time because it happens all the time and it took me a minute to try to find the right angle to explain it in this episode i sat applauded started to think about different topics angles but essentially it came down to trying to explore and unpack why we cannot stop talking about big sales big auctions million dollar cards this episode hopefully will give you the collector a way to separate three ideas that get blended together after every major auction the transaction is what happened between the bidders and the seller the signal is what the sale changes in the market around it and the spectacle is the attention emotion content created by the number we're going to dig into all of that before we do that make sure you're following us hit the follow button tell a damn friend run on over the patreon group we are putting out new and exclusive content each and every day so make sure you go check that out shout out inferno red technology the sponsor of the flagship episodes they are the engineering team behind some of the biggest names in sports and collectibles like dc sports eighty seven comsea collectors upper deck and ebay from ai powered solutions for startups to full stack platforms for industry leaders their team can tackle your toughest technology challenge they build awesome software for the hobby for leagues and fans and everyone in between see what they can build for you at inferno red dot com i wanna start with a scene that has become familiar in this hobby a major auction closes late at night the final prices hit the screen screenshots start moving across social media and by the next morning everybody has an opinion this card was a steal this card went for too much the buyer has lost his his or her damn mind the seller got lucky this proves the market is strong this proves the market makes no sense then we debate it for about a day or two the conversation fades another auction comes along and then we do it again we sell it after the latest fanatics collect premier auction the cooper flag nba rookie debut patch autograph sold for eight point zero four million dollars with the buyer's premium it received eighty three bids during the two week auction according to fanatics the price moved from about three point five million around nine o'clock on thursday night to eight point zero four million around two o'clock friday morning in the same auction the dylan harper rookie patch autograph sold for two point eight eight million and the con canupol sold for two point three four million those three cards alone sold for thirteen point two six million dollars these are one of one cards tied to the nba debut of three top players from the same rookie class they're not normal cards these were built to sit at the center of the conversation and they did the flag result moved beyond card media sports outlets covered it people compared it with the honus wagner people compared the price with houses salaries and other things someone can buy for eight million dollars then the hobby did what the hobby does it started judging the sale i watched the reaction and kept coming back to the same question why do so many of us spend so much time analyzing cards that almost none of us can buy why does a sale involving a small group of bidders create a reaction from a large part of the hobby why is criticism often the first response and what does one of these sales tell us about the market the rest of us participate in every day i do not wanna criticize people for having opinions i have opinions too hell i built my career around having an opinion talking about cards is fun i also do not wanna protect a buyer from criticism because he spent a lot of money a large price does not make a decision smart wealth does not create immunity from bad judgment i wanna understand what happens after the hammer falls because the auction ends but a second competition begins that competition is over the meaning of the sale one person says the card is a landmark and another person says that the price is reckless one person sees proof that modern cards belong besides the icons of the past another sees proof that the hobby has lost its way the card has a new owner the rest of us start bidding on the interpretation this is what this episode is going to be about the first thing we need to understand is that a premier auction serves two audiences the first audience has the money and intent to bid the second audience watches the second audience is much larger most collectors will never spend seven figures on a card most will never spend six figures and many will never spend five figures that does not stop them from following the cards watching the bids and talking about the results i don't think that's strange people watch the super bowl even though they will never play in it people follow the sale of a famous painting even though they aren't bidding at sotheby's people watch a rare car cross the auction block even though their own car is sitting in the driveway and needs an oil change the top of the market creates a form of public entertainment it gives us a clean scoreboard there's a card there's a price there is a winner you do not need to understand every part of the hobby to react to an eight million dollar sale the number does the work think that matters because most parts of collecting are hard to reduce to a headline how do you put a number on the joy of finishing a team set how do you rank the meaning of a card that reminds someone of going to a game with their dad how do you compare one person's wrestling collection and another person's wnba collection you cannot do it cleanly money gives the hobby a common language even when money is not the reason many people collect that is the first reason these sales take over the conversation they're easy to understand the second reason is that watching gives everyone a way to participate you do not need eight million dollars to say whether you think a card is worth eight million dollars you do not need to be registered for the auction you do not need to know the buyer you do not need to own a comparable card the opinion is free in a hobby where access is often determined by money commentary is open to everybody and that can be healthy it gives collectors a shared event it gives people talking across different lanes a vintage collector and a modern basketball collector might have little overlap in what they buy but both can view have a point of view on a record sale the conversation becomes a place where the hobby full hobby meets the third reason is that the prices help people locate themselves when you see an eight million dollar sale you do not only think about the card you think about your cards you think about what you value you think about whether the market rewards the same things you reward you think about whether your lane matters that reaction can be quiet it can also show up as criticism if a card you do not understand sells for a number you cannot process rejecting the sale protects your own view of the hobby you can say the buyer is foolish you can say the card is manufactured you can say the market is fake sometimes those concerns deserve examination sometimes the criticism is less about the card and more about restoring order in your own head we want the market to reward what we believe deserves to be rewarded when it does not we feel the need to explain why the market is wrong there is another force at work negative reaction travels research on news consumption has found that people show stronger physical and emotional responses to negative news than positive news news research on social media have also found that feedback can reinforce expressions of outrage over time that research was not concluded in the sports card hobby i'm not saying that a post about a card sale is the same as political outrage the pattern still helps explain what we see i cannot believe someone paid this much creates more tension than a wealthy collector bought a rare card this sale proves the hobby is broken i've seen that one a lot this creates more of a reaction than the card sold in a narrow market with unusual demand one statement invites conflict the other asks for context social platforms reward the first one faster the immediate reaction also has a timing advantage the auction ends the price is fresh people are awake screenshots are ready nobody knows what the result means yet uncertainty creates an opening for certainty the first people to speak can sound like analysts before enough evidence exists to analyze that isn't unique to cards we see it after games elections earning reports and product launches the event ends the race to explain it starts the fastest opinion often wins the most attention the most useful opinion tends to need more time there's also something specific about an auction that increases the emotion an auction is not a fixed price sale it is a competition that is happening in public research on auction behavior has found that time pressure and social competition can raise arousal and lead to higher bids researchers have used the phrase auction fever to describe the way the desire to win can be part of the decision itself we can see the ingredients in a late night bidding window two people want the same thing the clock is moving each new bid tells the other person that somebody else sees the value too the bidder is not deciding what the card is worth the bidder is deciding whether he or she is willing to lose it those aren't the same question then everyone watching gets to evaluate the result with none of the pressure the bidders felt the observer has time distance and no risk of losing the card that makes it easy to look at a winning bidder and ask what were they thinking the answer might be this the answer might be that he made a mistake the answer might also be he had a different reason for buying the card than the observer assumes we usually know the price we rarely know the buyer's full financial position time horizon collection personal attachments or reason for pursuing the card itself we fill in the missing information with our own values then we judge the purchase against a goal that the buyer might not have that is an important distinction if the buyer wanted the strongest financial return the sales should be judged as an investment if the buyer wanted to own a defining card of a player he or she follows the return is only one part of the purchase if the buyer wanted status attention access or a place in hobby history those are part of the value too you do not have to respect every reason you do need to identify the reason before you claim that the buyer failed here is where i think the hobby makes its largest mistake we confuse the size of the price with the size of the market an eight million dollar result feels like a broad statement because the number is so large it is still just one transaction the flag auction showed eighty three bids that does not mean eighty three different people were willing to pay eight million one bidder can place many bids the final price tells us that the winner was willing to pay the final amount and that another bidder pushed him close to it it does not tell us how many buyers would be there if the same card returned next month it does not tell us what the card would bring in a private sale it does not tell us what the card will be worth in five years it does not tell us whether ten other buyers exist within ten percent of the final price it tells us what happened in the auction under those conditions and that's real information it is not complete information collectibles trade in thin markets when a card is a one of one there is no identical copy waiting to sell tomorrow the number of qualified buyers is limited the motives are mixed the timing matters the auction house matters the promotion matters buyer's premium matters the presence of two motivated bidders certainly matters academic work on art markets has described the tension between deep evaluation and thin price data that description fits cards a card can have a story player importance set importance rarity scarcity condition design provenance cultural meaning then all of that gets compressed into one public number the number looks precise the underlying value is not that is why one sale can be real and still be hard to repeat it it is also why calling the sale fake manipulated or irrational requires evidence thin does not mean fake unrepeatable does not mean illegitimate a private value can be far above the next person's value without being dishonest at the same time a public auction result should not receive a blank check payment matters the buyer's relationship to the seller or auction house matters the number of serious bidders matters the auction terms matter the difference between a completed sale and an unpaid invoice certainly matters healthy skepticism asks for those details lazy skepticism sees a number it dislikes and decides something improper must have happened those are very very different behaviors i think we need a better way to process these sales the next time a major auction closes separate the result into three different parts the transaction the signal the spectacle start with the transaction what happened be exact what card sold what does the card contain was it a one on one does it have an autograph was the memorabilia tied to a specific game or moment what grade did it receive did the report price include a buyer's premium was the sale public private paid or verified for flag the details certainly matter this was not a base rookie card with a large population it was a damn card that got signed at fanatics fest the biggest event of the year in front of thousands of people it was a one of one nba rookie debut patch autograph the patch came from the first nba game the card was signed it received the psa ten with a ten autograph it was tied to the top pick in the draft after the rookie year of the season you can still believe eight million was too much you should be clear about what someone bought before you make the case the transaction is the narrowest part of analysis it answers one question what price cleared the market for this card on this night next comes the signal what behavior might change because of this sale this is where the result can reach beyond the buyer and seller owners of other debut patches cards might raise their expectations collectors might pay more attention to debut based memorabilia auction houses might compete harder for the next one that hits manufacturers might see more reason to build products around event worn patches breakers might use the sale to sell the dream inside sealed product new buyers might enter the category sellers of the coup sellers of cooper flag cards might price their cards higher even when the connection to the card is weak those are signals some will last some will disappear the right question is not did the sale have an impact it certainly did i'm doing a freaking podcast about it the right question is where did the impact travel and how far the strongest effect should appear closest to the card other nba rookie debut patches autographs other top flag one of ones other cards with authenticated memorabilia from a first game as we move farther away the signal gets weaker i've talked about that a lot in flagship content recently the sale does the sale tells us less about the number numbered flag card it tells us less about the veteran autograph it tells us almost nothing about the price of a card in a different sport from a different era with a different collector base this is where bad analysis spreads someone takes a record price from the narrowest path part of a market and applies it to everything around it that is an analysis that is proximity being mistaken for comparability the third part is spectacle and oh boy is the hobby a spectacle right now or what why did the sale capture so much attention the answer includes the price but is not limited to the price the card had a full story before the auction even began it was pulled during a live break the collector had spent five hundred and fifteen dollars on a break spot the card was revealed in real time there was a there were large offers public bounties the cooper flag signed it at fanatics fest as mentioned the top debut patches from the rookie class entered the same auction then the flag card moved almost five million dollars in the final hours that is a story built for attention the spectacle creates value for more people than the consignor and auction house media companies get content collectors get a debate manufacturers get proof that their chase card mattered breakers get the result they can point to platforms get engagement the hobby gets a moment that crosses into sports culture this is why commentary does not stop the sale is not only a sale it is content for the entire hobby now we get to come back to the question that started this entire episode is all of the reaction good or bad for the hobby i do not think there's one answer the reaction is good when it creates curiosity someone sees the flag sale and wants to understand what a rookie debut patch is someone learns why a card tied to a specific game carries a different kind of meaning someone studies the history of major basketball card sales someone questions how auction premiums work someone looks at the difference between rarity and importance this is useful the reaction is good when it demands transparency if an auction house announces a record collectors should be able to ask whether the transaction was paid they should ask whether the reported amount includes a premium they should understand the bidding rules they should look for conflicts and undisclosed interest trust requires questions the reaction is also good when it gives the community a shared subject the hobby contains many small groups baseball basketball football soccer wrestling a wnba pokemon vintage modern ultra modern unopened product autographs game use material and the list goes on a major sale brings those groups into one discussion the discussion can help the hobby understand itself the reaction becomes harmful when the criticism turns personal we do not know enough about the buyer to call him stupid because he paid more than we would pay we do not know enough about his or her goals to decide that they failed we can criticize the price without inventing the person the reaction becomes harmful when an outlier is treated as the average if three debut patch cards sell for more than thirteen million that does not mean the entire market moved with them most collectors woke up that next morning with the same cards the same budget and the same opportunities they had the night before the sale did not change the meaning of your collection unless you gave it that power the reaction becomes harmful when every result is forced into a positive or negative verdict not every sale proves the hobby is healthy not every price proves the hobby is broken some sales are events they show what happened when a rare object a strong story a promoted auction and motivated bidders meet met at the same time we cannot let an event be an event while we wait to see whether it becomes a trend the reaction becomes harmful when the spectacle replaces the hobby if the only cards that receive attention are the ones with the largest price tags we start teaching people that price is the main measure of importance that is not the hobby that i know i know collectors who spend years finding cards that cost less than one bid increment in a premier auction their work matters i know collectors whose favorite card would not make an auction house headline the card still carries a story that no public sale can measure the top end brings attention into the hobby it should not be allowed to define the full hobby i wanna be fair to the other side it would be easy to say these sales do not matter because the buyer pool is small i think that would be wrong small groups can set important prices the buyers at the top influence what gets consigned promoted design insured financed and discussed one major result can change expectations across an entire category we saw three nba rookie debut cards combined for thirteen point two six million that gives every owner of a major debut patch new information it gives fanatics and tops information too it tells them that a collector placed large values on a card connected to a player's first game it tells auction houses that these cards attract bidders and media coverage it tells breakers and shops that the hunt can pull attention into a product this is where a small buyer pool can have a large industry impact the buyers do not need to represent the average collector to influence what the average collector is offered next and i think that point matters the direct market effect might be narrow the business effect can be wide if the industry sees an eight million dollar outcome more product will be built to pursue an outcome like like it again more attention will go towards one of ones patches tied to moments bounding cards and public chases that does not mean every collector wants those things it means the companies making the cards have a strong incentive to produce more of what creates attention and spending this is one of the reasons collectors should study these sales even if they never plan to bid the sale can shape the products that reach your shop and your feed the other impact is cultural record sales tell people outside the hobby that cards can sit beside art watches cars and other high value collectibles that brings credibility capital curiosity and new participants it also brings speculation status seeking and pressure growth never arrives by itself the question is whether the hobby can absorb the attention without allowing the largest number to become its only story there's one more part of the psychology that deserves attention when we criticize a sale we might be protecting ourselves the top of the market can create distance you see a card sell for more than your house more than your retirement account more than the value of your entire collection and it can make the hobby feel less familiar you might ask whether the place is still for you that is a real emotional response the fastest way to remove the distance is to reject the sale if the buyer is foolish you do not need to feel behind if the sale is fake you do not need to reconsider your understanding of the market if the card sucks or is ugly you do not need to wrestle with why somebody values it the criticism returns control i felt versions of this i've looked at sales in lanes i do not collect and thought you know what i don't get it i think that sentence is fine the problem starts when i don't get it turns into there is nothing to get those statements are not the same one admits that my knowledge has a boundary the other makes my knowledge the boundary for everyone else serious collectors need to be able to sit with a market they don't understand you can study it question it you can decide it's not for you you do not need to destroy its legitimacy to protect your own lane the same principle applies in the other direction if you own cards in the category you do not need to treat every record as proof that your cards are worth more excitement can protect a thesis in the same way criticism can protect one the seller sees confirmation the collector sees validation the business sees demand each person takes the part of the result that supports what he or she already wanted to believe that is why the conversation becomes so loud we are not only discussing the sale we are using the sale to defend our place and position in the hobby the next major auction will close soon enough golden will have one heritage will have one fanatics will have one the screenshots will appear the reactions will start what when that happens i want you to remember a few questions first what do we know not what do we assume what do we know we know the card the auction house we know the reported price we know the grade the number of bids and the buyer's premium we might not know the buyer the underbidder the payment status or the motives build the analysis from the facts that you have do not use certainty to fill the gaps second is a transaction a signal is it a transaction a signal or a spectacle it can be all three name each part the transaction is narrow the signal needs evidence from nearby cards and later sales the spectacle explains why the whole hobby is talking when you separate them you stop asking the price to carry the full weight of the conversation third how deep is the market do not count total bids and assume each bid represents a different buyer look at the final bidding look at the repeat results look for private offers with credible documentation look at what happens when the next related card sells one buyer can create a record market needs more than just one result fourth what is the closest valid comparison do not start with a famous card from another era because the price is similar start with the attributes same player same product family same type of memorabilia level of scarcity grade then identify where the comparison breaks a comp is not a command it is a piece of evidence fifth what am i reacting to the card the price the buyer the company that made it the direction of the hobby the feeling that i'm being left behind the hope that my collection is gaining value be honest your first reaction can teach you something about your own collecting sixth what would need to happen next for the sale to matter this is the question that moves us from commentary to analysis if the sale is a true signal where should we where should we see evidence next should we should another rookie debut patch set a new high should top flag cards move higher should more bidders enter our category should manufacturers expand a specific program should auction houses invest more in similar cards write down the expected result then come back later and check it more reaction posts never do this they make a claim the morning after the auction and disappear before the claim can be tested if we want to act like analysts we need to keep receipts on our own thinking seventh does this change anything for my collection most of the time the honest answer will be no the sale can be interesting without becoming instruction you can appreciate the event without changing your own plan you can question the price without making it personal you can study the signal without chasing the category you can let the collector with a different budget and different goal make a decision that has no control over yours and that is the best part of the hobby that's independence i also think we should evaluate these sales on three different clocks you got the first twenty four that is the spectacle the number is new the posts are moving the comparisons are flying the period tells us how much attention the sale can create it tells us very little about the lasting market impact the second clock is the next thirty days that is where we start looking for signal do related cards get listed higher do they sell do consignors bring more cards to the market do auction houses promote the card category higher does the result attract new buyers or does the conversation vanish the third clock is the next six months that is where we see whether behavior changed did the price reset the category did it create one high sale and nothing else would the manufacturers do this is the discipline missing from the immediate reaction we judge long term meaning on a twenty four hour clock the next morning is the right time to talk about the event it is too damn early to declare the future i do not want collectors to stop talking about major auctions i want the conversation to dig to get better these sales are interesting they show us story scarcity competition money and attention meeting inside the hobby they expose what the industry values they show us what companies want to promote they give us information about a small but influential part of the market they also reveal something about us we are drawn to the extreme we want a clear number we want to know whether the buyer was right or wrong we want to we want the sale to confirm what we believe we want to feel included in an event that most of us can only watch none of that makes the conversation bad it means we need to understand what conversation that we're actually having are we evaluating the transaction are we looking for a market signal or are we participating in the spectacle those are three very different activities so the next time a card sells for a number that stops your scroll serves as your pattern interrupt pause before you tell the hobby what it means start with what happened identify what changed separate the evidence from your own reaction then ask whether the sale has anything to do with the way you collect one card sold one buyer won one seller received the result everything beyond that needs to be earned by more evidence a record sale can only be real without being representative it can only matter without becoming a rule it can deserve attention without deserving control over your collection that is the part i want us to remember when the next auction ends and the commentary begins hope you enjoyed this episode we have new content coming out every day every day you'll get a new piece of content from the stacking slabs network and we are fired up to continue to bring them to you we are passionate builders we believe in this type of content we believe in thinking we believe in being independent we believe in a better way to have conversations about cards we believe cards matter they have meaning they are much more than just something pumping our algorithms and trying to get us to think of certain things so if this episode helped make you slow down and think about what you're seeing on a regular basis then it's done its job if you really enjoyed this tell a damn friend would love to see the this episode being shared i'm happy to repost it that is a signal to me that i am doing a good job appreciate all your support happy collecting we'll be backs be back soon take care