When Rookie Cards Aren’t the Best Cards: The Haliburton Hypothesis
Welcome back to Stacking Slabs. This is your hobby content alternative. I am your host, Brett. Flagship episode time coming at you.
Want to get into a topic that's been in my brain for quite some time, and I think it's a great topic to explore on a flagship episode. It is one of those nerdy collecting topics where I start to think and question conventional wisdom.
And this is why I do this show is to take on narrative that the hobby has delivered to us for so often and try to, defy authority a little bit, try to reason and ration, with myself around various topics.
And I put out something last week on Instagram, and it just hit me. It was in my stories, and I just said, Halliburton's Pacers cards are greater than Halliburton's Kings cards. And, obviously, I'm a Pacers fan.
This experience as a Pacers fan, this run has been magical. But I think a lot about the cards, and I think a lot about the positioning of cards, what's available, what's not, tenure, all these emotional factors.
And I really meant that post not just from a I am a Pacers fan, and, of course, I'm gonna want his Pacers cards more, but more from a traditional hobby perspective of the rookie card always matters more.
Now I'm not necessarily getting up here today to, say rookie cards don't matter, and we shouldn't pay attention to them.
I am just trying to offer a different perspective from what we traditionally hear. And I'll say this. Halliburton is gonna be the example, but this episode is not exclusive to Tyrese Halliburton.
I think everything I say in this episode, you can replace Tyrese Halliburton, for the most part at some level with Jalen Brunson based on him being drafted by the Mavericks, but being known as a Knick. So I wanna get into that.
We're just gonna hit the ground running. I'll quick you know, show your support. You know, you all I I feel the support. I see the numbers growing. I appreciate all the listeners. Just follow. Tell your damn friends.
If you want more from me, want video from me, hit the Patreon group. Link is in the show notes. But I wanna call this episode, I'm a big fan of alliteration, so we're gonna call this one the Halliburton, hypothesis.
So let's get into it. I got a lot on my mind. You know, you don't get too many chances to have your favorite player lead your favorite team to the NBA finals. And when it happens, you feel everything all at once.
It's a feeling of joy. It's a feeling of pride. It's adrenaline, and maybe most of all, it's clarity. And that's what this run for the Pacers and Tyrese Halliburton specifically has given me.
It's given me clarity. Because what I've come to realize during this is not all rookie cards are created equal. Especially in rare cases, they're not even the most important cards of a player.
I know that's gonna ruffle feathers. Right? We as collectors, participants in the hobby, we have preconceived notions on how stuff works, and there it's like there's a rule book and we wanna stick to the rules.
And I'm not here to argue with that rule book. I'm here to talk about what happens when a player rewrites their own story in real time and the impact that has on their cards.
Let's talk about Halliburton. Okay? He was drafted by the Kings. He was traded in a deal that Pacers fans, like myself, still can't believe actually happened.
And since then, he's done nothing but break record records, change the culture here in Indiana, and now he's led his team, the Indiana Pacers, to the NBA finals for the time since February.
He's already regarded, in my opinion, as one of the greatest Pacers of all time, and the crazy thing about it is it feels very much like it's just getting started.
The this postseason has been a reminder of that greatness. We can rewind it back to the four biggest moments so far for Halliburton. We have game one of the Eastern Conference finals.
Actually, what order do I wanna do this? We'll do it in descending order. We'll start with April 28, game four against the Bucks. Halliburton with just a, a amazing moment. Pacers go up three one in the series.
We've got I'm gonna take that again, Ron. We have the series clinching layup in overtime versus Milwaukee in game five. We've got the game winning step back three versus Cleveland in game two, a moment that I am still reeling off of.
You've got the game tying jumper against the New York Knicks in game one where the ball bounces up and goes in, and you get the the red the choke sign.
And then you've got game one, which is the game winning jumper with point three seconds left against the Oklahoma City Thunder in this round of the finals.
Four moments, four memories, all in Pacers colors. And here's the thing. You can't connect those moments to a Kings rookie card.
That's why this episode matters because I'm starting to believe his best and most important and most collectible cards aren't his rookies. They're his Pacers cards, not the commodity cards or high end commodity cards.
Yes. That is not an oxymoron. I think high end cards can be considered commodity cards. So I'm not talking about the commodity cards being sold right now during the finals run.
This is the rare stuff, the golds, the blacks. Some of the the ones you don't see every day because they're already in the hands of collectors who know what they already have.
So, no, this isn't just about Halliburton. It's about what we collect and why. So let's get into it. So the idea here is rookie cards aren't always the best cards of a player. And in rare moments, this became comes crystal clear.
I'll say Halliburton, my favorite player. This is the most exciting Pacers run ever, really. I mean, 2,000 was great. There's many moments where we didn't make the finals, but this is the best for me as a Pacers fan.
It's really personal. So the Halliburton arc, a player who became a player, and this is the situation. Right? So So we can run through it.
Drafted by the Kings in 2020, but traded early in his career. Since arriving in Indiana, multi time all star, assists records, cultural leader, he's led the Pacers to the finals for the time in since February.
He's rewriting legacy. No collector five years from now, ten years from now will ever remember him as a king His defining NBA moments are in that Pacers blue and gold. He's not a journeyman.
He's a franchise cornerstone. So this situation, and I'm saying this, rookie cards are always viewed as the cards, but there are these situations, and Halliburton is one of them, where he was moved shortly after he was drafted.
And while he certainly was a good prospect with the Kings, He became a superstar. Yes. I'm saying it superstar with the Pacers. So we evaluate the transition. We evaluate the moves.
And, really, what we're trying to do is consider, what does this mean for his entire, card catalog, his selection, the ranking of cards? And, again, this is no straightforward, this is the way it is, black and white.
This is more of an alternative perspective. I think there are market discrepancies, and I think there's two Halliburton markets when you're looking at his cards that it exists.
I was checking card ladder over the last month. His market has been up 18%. This typically is what happens when you have a player with, you know, a high ceiling that are in these moments.
The the finals in this run certainly has fueled demand, and this isn't one of those things where it's like off season speculation, so that's fun.
It's like the actual so much of what we talk about in the hobby so often is, like, the hype and the momentum and potential and what could have happened. Well, this is, like, this is happening in real time.
And so I've got some observations. I've seen a lot, like, the most interesting thing, and I think the strongest and compelling case of this argument, is the cards that are for sale and the cards that are not for sale.
So the cards that are for sale, you're seeing NTRPA's 99 out of 99. That's my high end commodity card, what I will say.
That's available. People are selling it, and people want a lot of money for it. People don't wanna hold this card who are selling it probably because they're not Pacers or Halliburton fans.
Not that that matters, but I think it impacts this. They're making those cards available. They're trying to get rid of it. They peep people aren't trying to hold those cards right right now.
Right? People are selling those cards, and it's interesting as a Pacers and Halliburton collector and fan. When I see the availability and sale of these cards, it's, it's people are selling their belief.
Right? They're trying to get out before anything happens. So that card, we've seen the Prism Black one of one sell, Halliburton's biggest sale of all time, King's jersey.
Great card, but, again, it's a King's jersey. And then we, as I'm recording this, I think the last night, his courtside select black one of one sold on eBay.
So from a hobby traditional hobby perspective, people would say his best cards are selling or have sold right now. My take on it is I look at those cards, and, traditionally, yes, they are the best cards, of of, Halliburton.
I think my issue with them is, well, then why are they available right now? Right? It's people are getting out of them. They're changing hands.
And so the the market really is the cards aren't moving, the cards are moving, and and pay it's not Pacers fans or pay Halliburton collectors typically gravitating to these Kings cards, but it's the other market that exists.
And I think the people selling these cards, are just trying to cash out. I think the the Pacers cards to me tells a different story.
There's a, certainly, there's a good series of Halliburton Pacers cards that are available. I own his Pacers run of gold prism cards, which I love. I would never think twice about selling those cards.
I wanna keep them even more after this run. But I'm as I'm seeing as a collector of Halliburton and someone who is looking for his rare and scarce Pacers stuff, stuff isn't avail stuff is just not available in that front right now.
And I think what's interesting from my perspective is I see what's happening with the prices of his Kings cards because they're rookie cards and what they're selling for.
And then I check the delta of any Pacers card that I would want or might have become available for a moment.
And to me, it's not even a question. It's like, why would I pay thousands of dollars more for him and a Kings jersey just because he's in a, or him and a and a rookie card just because he's in a Kings jersey?
I would much rather pay way less and buy a card in a Pacers jersey that has an impact.
Right? There's an emotional attachment. It's not a financial investment for me. I think when you look at it from a collector's lens, you start to ask yourself questions like, are the rookie cards his best cards?
And I know it's subjective, but it's just one Halliburton collector, one Pacers fan fan here just that wanna dig into this.
Rookie card logic is hobby programming. Most collectors are taught if it's not a rookie, it doesn't matter that much. But not all rookies age well, especially when a player's story changes dramatically.
I don't think we can say, use the rule of thumb of trying to gas up prices because player a player is on a run or a player wins a trophy or a player wins an MVP or we are prospecting that player to, you know, do well the next season, and so we hold our cards in high regard.
I don't think we can continue to, like, speculate like that as buyers or sellers and not take into consideration the changing of the dynamics within that player's catalog when these moments happen.
Like, there is a significant shift happening in the perception of a player like Halliburton during a run like this because and and it and it's and it and it has a lot a lot of that has to do with our memories and what what we're gonna remember him by.
And right now, the number one thing you're gonna remember a player like Halliburton by, whether this is a win or a a loss in this series, is this finals run. It is a mountaintop moment for any player.
So I think the rookie card logic is hobby programming. And I think if we are independent thinkers, we should challenge that hobby programming whenever stuff pops in our minds that serves as catalyst to help us do that.
So the question is when does the rookie card myth break? What when the rookie card doesn't reflect the true player identity, that's when the rookie card myth can break.
Halliburton's identity has nothing to do with the Sacramento Kings. Nothing to do with it. And the this might be a poor analogy, but a player that I'm thinking about and and that's, like, because he was drafted there.
And, immediately, I think about Kawhi Leonard. Kawhi Leonard was drafted, with the Pacers. Does anyone think of him as a pacer? No. I mean, he never played a game there, but I'm just trying to pull an example.
Just because a player was selected for another team doesn't mean that represents their identity. I think when fan connection and collector emotion are tied to a different era or team, that is considered and why that matters.
And I think why I put out Halliburton's Pacer cards are better than his Kings rookies is because they're tied to real moments, playoff runs, buzzer beaters, records.
They are visual representations of who he is to fans and collectors, and they're significantly scarcer and more collector controlled.
Two different markets. The stuff that's moving is the stuff that the hobby tells you you should care about, and the stuff that's not is the stuff that's locked away in collections.
So there's a psychology of around what's unavailable. And I think, again, another point whether it's Halliburton or another player in a similar adjacent scenario, it should be considered.
And I think why scarcity matters more I think scarcity matters more than supply. Right? The rare Pacers cards exist. They're just not accessible. And this changes the psychology of collecting. You can't just buy it now.
Like, if I wanted to go buy a high end one of one or Halliburton rookie Kings card right now, I could go to eBay and do that. I know I could. There's plenty of auctions running too, but I can't do that for Pacers cards that I want.
You have to earn it through kind of relationships or timing. Pacers one of my last Halliburton card that I bought was his select courtside black finite one of one.
And once that became available, it hit the profile of everything I want in a sports card, and I couldn't let it slip out of my hand, so I made it happen.
But since then, there hasn't been anything close to resonate that's popped up. I think there are certain cars that just never leave collector's hands.
And right now, my observation from being in this every day, safe searches, conversations with other collectors, the rare pair Pacer stuff is just not changing hands. Think a broader application and other players this applies to.
I mentioned Jalen Brunson. I think about a player like Steve Nash who draws a lot of comparisons with Halliburton. Suns legend, Mavs rookie, Chauncey Billups, Celtics rookie, Pistons icon.
I already mentioned, even if you take my bad analogy on Kawhi Leonard because he never played for the Pacers, you can take that, but then you can also, like his his is an interesting one.
Right? Spurs rookie obviously had success there, but then he's got the Raptors finals MVP, so that matters.
So what matters more? And and it it it's all dependent on the perception. It's all dependent on collectors. Who are your guys this applies to or could apply to?
I'd love to hear the examples because I know there's more. I know there's a lot across sports. Where do rookie rules fail you as a collector? It's a question I have. It's a question I'm exploring for myself.
I'm not saying rookie cards are irrelevant. I'm saying be aware when the card you care about the doesn't have the rookie logo on it. And to me, that's Halliburton. I'm not saying and I've I'm opposed to owning his Kings rookie cards.
I'm just saying I don't think they matter as much as some of the Pacers stuff. I have owned Halliburton Kings rookie stuff, and I've sold Halliburton King's rookie stuff. And, again, I'm just one collector and one example.
I think if the card connects to the moment, the memory, and the identity, it might be more meaningful than the rookie card. I'm not trying to convince you that Halliburton Pacers cards are better.
I'm just showing you what happens when collectors start thinking for themselves and stop taking every piece of information and every preconceived notion about this is the way it's always been and just take it at face value.
I think the punchline of all this is and be an independent thinker in the hobby.
Like, what you think and what you consider doesn't need to line up exactly with what the market value is and what collectors are doing and what collectors think.
If you feel or think a certain way about this topic or another topic, challenge it. Go all in. Provide data. At the end of the day, if there's no data or information, it's just how you feel, that could that's just enough.
There's so much about this hobby that's about emotional connection that doesn't get talked about enough. We look at the data. We look at the numbers.
We look at what's happening. The emotional connect connection that we as collectors have with players and how they appear on sports cards really matters, and I want this episode to be an example and a display to help support that.
I love sports cards. I love digging into topics like this. Thank you so much for supporting stacking slabs, your hobby content alternative. We'll be back with more soon.