welcome back to another flagship episode here on the stacking slabs network my name is brett i like to dig into topics around sports cards collecting and psychology really digging into the ultimate question and that question is why do we collect that is the north star of the flagship episode here on the stacking slabs network and really the heartbeat behind the entire stacking slabs network i appeared on a podcast this week and was asked about the flagship episode or specifically asked about what i view as the most important piece of content here on the network and i will always go back to the flagship this is what started it without the flagship it all crumbles i think about it just like without tyrese halliburton last year the the indiana pacers crumbled you gotta have the engine you gotta have the heartbeat and i'm excited to be here appreciate everyone telling your damn friends joining the patreon group following along there is a lot of gas left in the tank we are consistent we are persistent we are thoroughly researched and we are motivated to continue to bring you content in this space that is useful insightful and beneficial to you the collector and we have a topic we are talking about a specific sale and it is very rare that i spend a flagship episode talking about one card but there are moments that happen that i think we need to slow everything down and have a chat and we're gonna do that about a big sale that went down and i'm excited to do that before we do that we gotta shout out the the people that support the flagship the sponsor of the flagship shout out to inferno red technology they're the engineering team behind some of the biggest names in sports and collectibles like dc sports eighty seven comc collectors upper deck and ebay from ai powered solutions for startups to full stack platforms for industry leaders their team can tackle your toughest technology challenge they build awesome software for the hobby for leagues and fans and for everyone in between see what they can build for you at inferno red dot com doing an episode with scott and ed from the inferno red team built for the hobby it is going to be out here i believe tomorrow if you're listening to this on launch day always fun to kick it with the inferno red team let's start with the card a michael jordan card sold for one million four hundred and seventy three thousand nine hundred and eighty eight dollars and eighty cents it is the nineteen ninety seven metal universe precious metal gems red it is number two one hundred we all know that the first ten copies are green and the remaining ninety are red this copy is number fifty two and it sits in a b g s eight holder and on august thirteen it sold through alt for nearly one point five million dollars card ladder confirmed the sale this number stopped me not because seven figure card sales are something new not because michael jordan setting a record feels out of place and not because i think one transaction gives us a price for every other red p m g the sale stopped me because of what came before it the prior high for the bgs eight was four hundred and eighty thousand in february of twenty twenty one the last public bgs eight sale was two hundred and ninety eight thousand nine hundred dollars in june of twenty twenty four a bgs eight point five sold for six hundred and fifty one thousand three hundred and thirty three dollars in december of twenty twenty five at that point it was the highest public sale of a red jordan pmg and a green jordan pmg one of the most coveted if not the most coveted basketball card or maybe even sports card in the world one of ten sold in december of twenty twenty for nine hundred and fifteen thousand now we have a red one of ninety selling for more than one point four seven million there is one detail that makes this more useful the card that sold last is the same fifty two of one hundred copy that sold for four hundred and eighty thousand during the pandemic market it sold again for three hundred and sixty thousand june of twenty twenty three now it is sold for one point four seven four million same player same card same serial same grade three different moments in the market that gives us more than a headline it gives us a case study and i think we need these case studies when we're having conversations about the current state of the market case studies ground us case studies give us information that we can use to our advantage to think about our own collecting the question i wanna spend time with today is not was it worth it i don't know the buyer i do not know the buyer's collection finances goals and time horizon i cannot answer that question for somebody else the better question is what is this sale telling us what does it tell us about confidence at the top of the card market what does it tell us about cards that separate themselves when money enters the hobby and what does a transaction that almost none of us can participate in mean for the parts of the hobby where we do collect that is where i wanna go today i want to recognize the sale for what it is i also want to keep one sale from becoming a belief system both things matter before we interpret the sale we need to understand the object the ninety seven ninety eight metal universe basketball set gave collectors one of the first serial number parallels with a structure that still matters almost thirty years later each player had a hundred a hundred precious metal gems copies serial number through one through ten were green eleven through a hundred were red that means ninety copies in the stated print run were read one correction matters here there are not ninety other red copies of the jordan there are ninety total reds so there are eighty nine other serial numbered reds besides number fifty two before we account for the copies that were lost damaged or remained unopened can you imagine opening a pack and pulling out one of those jordans today card ladder lists eleven examples in the bgs eight population that is not the population of the card it is the number in this grade at this grading company those distinctions matter because people flatten them when a sale gets attention they hear bgs eight population eleven and turn it into only eleven exist they hear number two one hundred and treat the red and green versions in somewhat the same scarcity they hear record sale and apply the result to every copy we need more discipline than that this card earns attention for reasons that go beyond the serial number start with the subject if i had to name the person who connects the most parts of the modern sports card collecting i would choose michael jordan i think that is undeniable he is the straw that stirs the drink in the sports card hobby he connects people who watched him play with people who learned his story later he connects the nineteen eighties rookie card collector with the nineteen nineties insert collector he connects basketball history sneaker culture design competition nostalgia and status jordan is not tied to one hot season he does not need a playoff run to bring collectors back his career is complete his place in the culture is not only established but it's cemented his collector base spans countries and generations then we have the card itself the image is known the design is known the set is known the condition problems are known the pmg name is known collectors do not need a lesson before they understand why this card sits near the top of the nineties basketball market the point matters more than it sounds at the top end a buyer is not buying rarity alone there are many cards with fewer than nineties copy ninety copies there are thousands of one of ones most will never approach this price the buyer is paying for rarity attached to agreement collectors agree on the player they agree on the set they agree on the parallel they agree on the place this card holds in the hobby history that agreement creates demand scarcity limits supply and you need both this is where i think collectors get tripped up we spend a lot of time counting copies we spend less time counting the number of people who actually care a card numbered to five with ten interested collectors is one market a card numbered to ninety with hundreds of serious collectors who would own it at the right price is another market the denominator is not the full story the size commitment and staying power of demand matter that is the first lesson from this sale rarity becomes valuable when enough people agree on what deserves to be rare now let's go back to fifty two in february of twenty twenty one the this bgs eight copy sold for four hundred and eighty thousand that was the market many of us still use as a reference point prices move fast new buyers entered the last dance brought jordan back into the center of sports culture ebay reported that the us trading card sales rose a hundred and forty two percent from twenty nineteen to twenty twenty basketball sales rose three hundred and seventy three percent and michael jordan was one of the most popular players on the platform the hobby had attention money time and of course the fear of missing out then the market changed in june of twenty three the same fifty two out of a hundred copies sold for three hundred and sixty thousand that was a twenty five percent drop from its twenty twenty twenty one sale that number gives us useful context the card did not move in one direction its importance did not protect it from another price decline its history did not create a floor that would never break the market reset and this card participated in that reset then another bgs serial number ninety six bgs eight serial number ninety six sold for two hundred and ninety eight thousand nine hundred in june of twenty twenty four now number fifty two has sold for one point four seven million that is more than three times its four hundred eighty thousand dollar sale in twenty twenty one it is more than four times three hundred and sixty thousand dollar sale in twenty twenty three it is close to five times the last bgs eight sale from twenty twenty four those comparisons do not prove that every bgs eight is worth one point four seven million they prove that at least two bidders were willing to take this copy to the next level in a market that had never reached it for a red jordan pmg that is a signal it's a signal of demand it is not a guarantee of repeatability there's a difference between a sale and a market price a sale is one buyer meeting one seller under one set of conditions a market price needs follow through it needs another copy it needs another group of bidders it needs a result close enough to show that the first sale was not dependent on one buyer one serial number one auction room or one moment this is why i would not say the red jordan pmg is now a one point four seven million dollar card i would say a red jordan pmg has now sold for one point four seven million those sentences sound close they mean different things the first sentence turns one result into a price guide the second record the second records what happened and leaves room for the next piece of evidence collectors we need that room i think this leads us into another conversation that matters for most of us we need to separate a signal from a comp a comp helps you estimate the value of an item that is close to the item that sold a signal helps you understand where attention and confidence are moving the one point four seven million dollar sale is a direct comp for one narrow group of cards it belongs in the conversation for other red jordan pmgs with similar grades high appeal high eye appeal in transaction settings even there it needs support from another sale for almost every other card in the hobby this is not a direct comp it does not make a lebron james card worth a fixed percentage of the jordan it does not make every nineteen ninety serial numbered card more valuable it does not make a modern pmg equal to the first pmg set it does not make every card number to one hundred scarce in the same way but it can still be a signal it can tell us that a buyer with the ability to spend one point four seven million chose a card with a known subject known design known history and known place in the hobby the buyer did not need a population of one the buyer did not need an autograph it didn't need a patch it didn't need rookie year label the buyer chose recognition that is worth thinking about we have spent years watching manufacturers produce low serial number cards more colors more one of ones and more reasons to call cards rare this sale reminds us that manufactured scarcity and collector importance aren't the same thing the red jordan has ninety copies its power comes from what those ninety copies represent the first pmg set michael jordan during his final bowl season a design collectors can identify without reading the label a parallel that influenced the language of cards that followed and years of collector behavior that placed the card near the top the serial number confirms scarcity it did not create the meaning that is the second lesson the strongest cards do not depend on the label to explain why they matter most collectors listening to this episode will never buy a red pmg i will not buy one that does not make the sale irrelevant certainly money at the top can change behavior below at the bottom but it does not move through the market in equal steps it moves through relationships the first relationship is the player a seven figure jordan sale directs attention back to jordan collectors who cannot buy the red p m g look at other nineteen nineties jordan cards some look at the ninety seven metal universe base card because it shares the image and design language in twenty twenty six psa ten copies of the base card moved from roughly thirty five hundred dollars in late twenty four to sales of ten grand or ten point five k to fifteen k in may that rise started before the red pmg sales so we should not assign the movement to one event the point is that attention already existed in the cards around it the record enters a market where collectors were already willing to pay more for jordan cards from the set the second relationship is the set collectors look at the kobe bryant pmg they look at iverson they look at duncan's rookie year from the set they look at rodman and other players who matter to the era they look at platinum portraits and inserts around metal universe not because those cards deserve a mechanical increase because the headline sends people back into the checklist attention creates research research creates watch lists watch lists creates bids the third relationship is the era the sale supports the case for nineteen nineties basketball as a mature collecting category the cards have history the players have settled legacies the print run on key cards are known the best sets have a collector agreement and the cards have been through more than one cycle and i think that last point matters a card that rises and falls and rises again gives us more information than a card that only has traded during one run number fifty two sold in twenty one twenty three and twenty six we can see demand under three conditions the fourth relationship is the design or parallel family the pmg name reaches basketball football hockey marvel and products released years after nineteen ninety seven that does not make each pmg equal it does not make the name part of cult a collecting language when the first pmg set records a sale like this the entire family will gain attention that attention will earn in some places and be abused in others sellers will place pmg in the listing title and point to the jordan sale collectors need to ask which part of the connection actually carries weight is it the first set is the player design print run condition difficulty or is someone borrowing the name because the name has heat the fifth relationship is status within a niche this is where the sale reaches wrestling football wnba soccer racing and every category we discuss on this network this lesson is not find your category's version of a one point four seven million dollar card and expect the same price the lesson is to understand which cards hold the most agreement inside your category what is the card that collectors known before they see the serial number what brings together the player of the year the product the image and the story what card would serious collectors still want if the market went quiet for two years what card is demand beyond the person selling it this week every niche has a hierarchy the hierarchy can be small it can be young it can change but when money money enters a category it tends to seek the cards that require the least explanation that is what this jordan represents it is a card that needs little defense i keep coming back to the feeling around the hobby right now there's growth there's money there's price records there's new buyers there is also memory many of the people participating today live through the rise and decline that followed in twenty one they saw what happened when every card became a target they saw high pop rookies priced as if supply didn't matter they saw boxes treated as assets before checklists had time to settle they saw people buy because the graph was moving this period is not free from those behaviors we still have chasing we still have leverage we still have people buying the story of the price instead of the card the difference i see is the growth is more segmented the current card ladder index page shows categories moving at different rates and in some cases different directions that is what a market with lanes looks like basketball can rise while wrestling pauses an established jordan insert can move while a modern rookie falls pokemon can bring buyers into cards without creating equal demand for sports cards high end sales can set records while common cards struggle to find bids the headline number for june was close to six hundred and ninety five million in online card sales sealed wax sales tracked through cardliner that followed with roughly from nine hundred and eighty in may gem rate counted three point five million cards graded across the major grading companies in june that was a record up nineteen percent from may and sixty five percent from june of twenty five those numbers tell us that activity is high they do not tell us that every card is rising in fact record grading creates the opposite pressure for many cards more supply enters holders more copies complete compete for the same buyers the cards with no story beyond a grade and population count face more competition at the same time capital at the top is showing a willingness to pay for cards with history and agreement and i think that combination matters more inventory at the bottom more competition in the middle more concentration at the top that is different from a market where prices rise across a player because the player had a good week the market is giving larger rewards to separation the best cards in a category can move away from the next tier the top player can move away from the rest of the checklist the first versions of design can move away from the later versions the card with the strongest image can move away from the card with the same print room the market is not only asking how rare is it it is also asking why this one that is the question collectors need to be able to answer now we need to apply pressure to the other side if we wanna treat this sale as a signal we need to name what it does not prove it does not prove that the next red jordan pmg will sell for more than a million the next copy might but it might not the grade i appeal serial number auction format timing bidder pool and seller terms will shape the next result we do not know how many bidders were active near the closing price we do not know whether the underbidder will return for the next copy one bidder leaving can change a thin market the sale does not prove that the red is now worth more than a green i think we can all agree that it's it's not the nine hundred and fifteen thousand dollar green sale that occurred in december of twenty twenty it is a six year old sale from a completely different market comparing the two numbers is useful because it shows how far the red result has moved it is not a current head to head test between the red and the green if a green came to market today the result would give us new information the sale does not prove that the grade stopped mattering it tells us that for this card the market accepted a b g s eight at a record price one condition sensitive nineteen nineties foil and eight carries meaning the card also has the eye appeal history and scarcity to make the number on the holder one part of the decision the sale does not prove that every pmg receives the same lift the first pmg set has a place that later uses the name the name do not share michael jordan has demand that most subjects don't share the red has a print run-in history that a modern parallel does not inherit by using the same letters the sale does not prove that low serial number creates value it proves that the value can attach to a card with a print run of ninety when the demand is strong enough there are one of ones that cannot find a buyer there are cards numbered to one hundred with waiting lists supply is one side of the market the sale does not prove that the hobby is safe from another correction number fifty two fell for four hundred and eighty thousand to three hundred and sixty thousand and rose to one point four seven million an important card can fall a record can be followed by a lower sale demand can change that history should make us more measured not fearful so what do we do with this question i always ask myself especially as i'm putting together these episodes most of us are not deciding whether to spend nearly one point five million dollars on a card we are deciding whether to spend a hundred and fifty fifteen hundred maybe fifteen grand inside the categories we care about the scale changes the first questions remain useful first ask whether the card has agreement or only scarcity if a card numbered to ten it's a card numbered ten who wants it how many collectors have built around the player set in parallel does the card sit inside a collecting tradition or does the serial number carry the full sales pitch second ask whether the card can explain itself if you remove the grade in the population report would collectors still recognize why it matters maybe that matters to you maybe it doesn't with the image product year or story hold up the strongest cards do not need every line on a label to make the case third understand the relationships around your card what is the card above it what is the card below it what other cards share the player set design and era when a sale brings attention into your category which cards are close enough to benefit from research and which cards are only borrowing the headline fourth watch the next sale do not stop at the record the next red jordan pmg will tell us more than a week of reaction posts watch the grade watch the copy watch the platform watch how many bidders remain near the top watch what happens to adjacent jordan cards and other key cards from nineteen ninety seven metal universe follow through separates a market move from just one outcome fifth do not chase interpretation by the time a sale reaches every feed the easiest reaction is to buy whatever looks connected that is where discipline gets tested the red jordan pmg sale is not an instruction to go buy a pmg today it's an instruction to study why one card earned that level of demand use the sale to improve your own standards do not use it to lower them six define the best cards for your collection the sale will push people towards cards that the market has approved there is value in understanding consensus there is also risk in letting consensus replace your own taste you do not need to own the card everyone agrees is number one you do not need you need to know what role market agreement plays in your next decision if you collect for the story say that if you collect for scarcity say that if you collect the card you remember from childhood you can say that too if liquidity matters that's cool but say it problems begin when we buy for one reason and defend the purchase with another the jordan buyer knew what kind of card was being purchased we should bring the same clarity to our own budgets here's my interpretation the one point four seven million dollar jordan red pmg sale is a sign that confidence has returned to parts of the high end card market it is also a sign that confidence is being placed with care the money went to the subject with the deepest demand in modern sports cards it went to a card from a set with close to thirty years of history it went to a parallel that collectors treat as a reference point it went to a copy with public transaction history it went to an asset that next serious buyers will understand that does not look like every card rising together it looks like capital choosing the cards with the strongest agreement for collectors across categories the implication is not that your cards are now worth more the implication is that the market is rewarding cards that combine meaning demand and scarcity if your niche is growing the money will not spread across every card in the same way it will gather around subjects that people trust it will gather around the designs people recognize it will gather around the cards with a story that survives the sales pitch then it will test the next tier some of that attention will create lasting demand some of it will create short price movement our job is to know the difference this is also why i do not want to move past the sale after one post the hobby trains us to react and move on a record happens thursday a new product releases friday a player has a big game sunday and by monday the last headline is old collectors lose context with every moment because content for one day the sale the sale deserves more time because it puts several questions in front of us what creates importance how much does consensus matter what separates true scarcity from a small print run how does capital move through a niche when does a record become a market price and how do we stay thoughtful when the numbers invite a reaction those questions matter in a one point four seven million dollar sale they matter at a hundred and forty seven dollars i love this sale i love a card from nineteen ninety seven can command this level of attention i love that a card does not need an autograph a patch or one of one design or a one of one stamp to matter i love that collectors have spent decades building the meaning around it and i love that we have a history around the same copy the history keeps the story honest it shows us the important cards can fall it shows us that demand can return it shows us that one sale captures one moment not the future the next red pmg jordan might clear one million it might land below we do not need to predict that today we need to pay attention to what the market tells us next for now i see a card with ninety red copies reaching a price once reserved for something rare i see a buyer choosing shared meaning over population of one i see money moving towards a car card that sits at the center of a category and i see a reminder for every collector listening do not confuse rarity with importance do not confuse one sale with certainty do not confuse a headline with an instruction study the damn card study the demand study what lasts after attention moves then decide what the signal means for you my name is brett i collect sports cards i like to talk about sports cards really appreciate you being here supporting stacking slabs your hobby content alternative make sure you hit the follow button and tell a damn friend if you're enjoying these episodes got a whole lot more coming your way take care happy collecting talk to you soon