welcome back what's going on everybody stacking slabs your hobby content alternative hope you're having a great week it is a big week here in the hobby in the sports card industry got a little event called fanatics fest going on have you heard of that one i am excited to get to new york and to connect with so many of you the loyal listeners of the stacking slabs network it is going to be a spectacle i'm sure this is the first fanatics fest for me as a massive wrestling fan i'm excited for the wwe activation i'm excited to see fanatics putting on the show that they do and everything in between the national on the other side i'm prepping i'm planning i'm doing all of the things my calendar is getting busier and busier i need to find some time to make sure i get to walk the floor and see so many cards so many dealers there's a lot going on it is a big summer and i am excited to be here to deliver another flagship episode and before we do that gotta shout out my good friends at inferno red technology the sponsor of the flagship episode they are the engineering team behind some of the biggest names in sports and collectibles like dc sports eighty seven comsea collectors upper deck and ebay from ai powered solutions for startups to full stack platforms for industry leaders their team can tackle your toughest technology challenge they build awesome software for the hobby for leagues and fans and for everyone in between see what they can build for you at inferno red dot com okay so i have been spending a lot of time this summer talking about grails planting the seed living with the grail what happens when the grail changes the plan and the more i've sat with this series the more i keep coming back to the same conclusion and that conclusion is the hardest part about landing a grail is not identifying it the hardest part is pricing it because most of the time when we talk about prices in the hobby what we are really talking about what are we really talking about we're talking about a lot of different components you got sales history public data we're talking about the last comp the last auction the last sale the pretty little chart that helps us feel like we know what we are doing but a true grail often does not play by those rules sometimes it hasn't sold in years sometimes it has never sold publicly sometimes it's a one of one sometimes it's a card in an emerging category where if you buy it you are not following the market you are the market and that is where things start to get a bit uncomfortable that is where collectors stop acting like analysts and start acting like human beings and that is what i wanna talk about today i want to talk about how we should evaluate grails with very little sales history i wanna talk about negotiation about when to walk away i wanna talk about how you know when it is time to make the move wanna dig into the psychology because i've heard a lot of people talk about grails as a destination but not nearly enough people talk about the decision and i think this conversations matters right now specifically because of the big shows there is a ton happening and it is important that we share some perspective so here's the thesis for this episode when a grail has little or no sales history stop asking what's the comp that is the wrong first question the better first question is what is the maximum i as a collector can justify for this opportunity without lying to myself that is the whole game not what's the card worth in some imaginary objective universe what is the maximum i can justify for the opportunity without lying to myself that's different i think that's more mature that's more honest and if you can answer that question well you will make better grail decisions than ninety nine percent of other people in this hobby let's start with the obvious problem the hobby is trained to think in comps because the entire infrastructure is built around public sales card ladders whole presentation is public sale data oh they also have private sale data but you have to submit that yourself psa has a massive official price guide all of it's useful all of it's necessary all of it goes sideways when the card you are targeting barely trades or has never publicly sold this is where collectors make the first big mistake they panic because there is no clean comp and then they conclude the price is fake no price is not fake price is just hard and when price is hard what you need is not fake certainty what you need is a framework because if you don't have a framework two things happen the seller's number instantly becomes your reality or your emotion becomes your reality i don't think either of those are good the seller has an advantage in these spots because ownership changes psychology behavioral research on the endowment effect shows that once people possess something they value it more than outsiders do in classic experiments once subjects own the item median selling prices were more than double median buying prices so if a grail owner seems irrationally attached to the price there's a good chance the ownership itself is inflating their view that doesn't mean they are wrong it means you should stop pretending their ask is an objective truth on the buyer side your problem is much different your problem is scarcity plus uncertainty plus imagination you start telling yourself i may never see this again and sometimes that's true but then you layer on another thought if i don't do this now i'll regret it forever and that is where things start to get dangerous prospect theory tells us people overweight certainty and evaluate decisions in terms of gains and losses relative to the reference point in a grail deal the reference point becomes ownership owning it now feels like a gain missing it feels like a loss and because losses hit harder than equivalent gains the fear of missing can become way more powerful than than the discipline of paying correctly that's why the comm trap is not just a data problem it's a psychology problem when there are no comms your brain reaches for anchor stories and urgency that's when discipline matters most so how do i think you should handle it i think you should price the opportunity not just the object and to do that i wanna offer a simple framework framework the first thing is the substitute universe if the exact card has no sales history build the ring of substitutes around it same player same tier of brand same era same scarcity class same design importance same visual appeal same autograph or patch significant if it's relevant same level of collector demand you're not trying to find a fake comp you're trying to triangulate a value neighborhood if the card is a player's best modern one of one from the brand that matters compare it to the player's other elite one of ones and compare it to equivalent player tier cards in adjacent brands if it is a culturally important rookie card compare it to other culturally important rookie cards not random serial number parallels if it is from an emerging category compare the strength of that category curve not just the isolated card the second thing is opportunity frequency how often does a real substitute show up and and i think this is critical because a grail with weak comps but fairly regular opportunity is very different from a grail with weak comps and almost no history if the card or something material close to it appears a few times a year you should negotiate harder and fear missing it less if it appears once every three years your acceptable premium can rationally widen not infinitely but rationally the third thing is collector based depth ask yourself who realistically wants this card besides me not who would click like on instagram or who would who but who would actually wire the money if they had access five people twenty people two whales one psychopath a broad international base a niche but deadly passionate set of specialists this matters because a grail with a shallow buyer pool can feel priceless without actually being liquid that is the difference between symbolic value and executable value the fourth thing is what does the ownership solve for me and i mean that seriously does owning the card complete a run define your collection eliminate low grade substitutes you no longer want strengthen your own collecting identity change the way you collect for the next five years or are you just drunk on the access that is the question a grail that materially simplifies your collecting life is worth more than a grail that simply provides a two week dopamine spike that is not a market number that is personal utility number but if you don't define it you will overpay for heat and underpay for meaning the fifth is build a real maximum not a fantasy maximum your maximum is not the number you hope the deal closes under your maximum is the number above which you would be disappointed in yourself six months later even if the card remained awesome that is your reservation point that is your line harvard did some work on negotiation and their negotiation work is a very very clear on this your reservation point is the highest price you should pay before it becomes better to walk and pursue your next best alternative if you do not define that before the conversation heats up you don't have discipline you just have vibes and this might sound a little ruthless but if your max keeps moving every time the seller texts you there was never a max it was just theater now let's get tactical when should you make the first offer on a grill my answer is only when you've done the work harvard's negotiation research says the first offer can improve economic outcomes when you have strong information understand the bargaining zone and can defend your anchor with objective standards the same research says it becomes risky when the market range is unclear and the other side knows more than you do that is grail negotiation in a sentence so here's how i handle it if you have built a strong substitute universe you understand the opportunity frequency and you know your max then i like making the first serious offer and i know that might sound crazy and you might ask why but i think it's because anchoring is real the first number shapes the entire discussion especially when there's no obvious comp but the keyword is serious not cute not insulting not timid serious a serious first offer says i know what this is i respect the card i respect your ownership and i am giving you a number that is ambitious for me but defendable in the real world that is very different from throwing out a lowball because you want to start somewhere lowballing a true grail owner usually just tells them you're unserious and then you spend the rest of the negotiation trying to recover your own credibility if you are not prepared enough to make the first serious offer then don't go first get the seller talking ask how they got there ask what their standards they're using ask whether they are optimizing for cash now trade value timing or simply testing the market because if the card has no sales history the seller's motivation is part of the valuation maybe they need liquidity maybe they don't need liquidity at all maybe they love the card but would move it if something equally meaningful came about plus cash maybe they are using an absurd ask as a shield because they don't really want to sell those are all very very different negotiations and i think remember remember this price is not the only term harvard is harvard is explicit that issues besides price belong inside the bargaining zone on grails that means payment schedule trade plus cash structure consignment alternatives future access provenance documentation and timing all matter if you're only negotiating one number you would be leaving a lot of room unexplored also make your concessions count don't just drift upward in silence if you move label it if you can get to another number i need this timing if i move on cash i need stronger trade credit if i come up i need certainty that we are getting this done harvard's guidance has concession harvard's guidance on concession is that they should be visible and tied to reciprocity not quietly handed away this is all psychology everybody in the hobby collectors do this terribly they make emotional concessions and then they take themselves to the other side of owed them fairness that is a negotiation that is self harm with nice packaging walking away sucks but we have to understand that walking away is a option and opportunity for us walking away i think is where real maturity shows up everyone likes to say they'll walk very few collectors actually do it when the card is sitting there so let me give you the real test you walk away when the price is outside your reservation point and the only argument left is your own fear you walk away when the seller's ask cannot be explained by substitute scarcity category momentum or personal utility you walk away when you feel yourself trying to justify the card by downgrading your future financial flexibility you walk away when the deal requires emergency fund damage high interest debt or selling stronger assets you already know you'll regret moving that is not disciplined theater and i think that's the point sometimes the right grail at the wrong time is a bad deal collectors hate hearing that because we love the language of conviction and conviction sounds noble conviction sounds romantic in a way but timing is not weakness timing is reality and if you don't have the balance sheet for the grail that doesn't mean you're not enough it means the timing isn't right and i so much would rather miss a grail and stay strong than force a grail and become weak because weakness shows up later it shows up when real life expenses hit it shows up when you need to sell in a bad market it shows up when a better grail surfaces and you have no optionality left it shows up when the card forced yourself to buy that you forced yourself to buy becomes a burden instead of a source of joy that is not living with the grail that is living under it so when do you actually make the move that's what we're getting to when do you all bets come off and you push all the chips in for me the answer is this you make the move when the opportunity is rare the substitute universe supports your range the number is inside your true reservation point and your life still works just fine and well after the purchase and that last part is everything your life still works after the purchase not your collector identity not your instagram presence not a group chat flex your life your cash your responsibilities your family your margin your optionality a grail should elevate your collection not destabilize your life and if you are funding it by moving other assets be honest about the source of money mental accounting trick tricks collectors use all the time we love saying things like well i'm just recycling card money fine but money is still money thaler's work on mental accounting is clear that people label funds by source and use use in ways that distort their own judgment if you are moving cards you don't care about anymore great if you're stripping the spine of your collection to buy one shiny object that is not harmless because the dollars come from cards it's just still a trade off this is the standard that i like if i land a grail do i feel stretched but strong or do i feel euphoric but exposed there's a difference stretched but strong usually means the move was meaningful euphoric and exposed usually means the move was reckless and one more thing do not confuse negotiation fatigue with clarity after enough back and forth you start wanting the conversation to end you do not just want the card you want relief this is when a bad deal happens this is when sunk costs creeps in time invested emotional energy invested ego invested and suddenly you're paying more not because the card got better but because you can't stand the idea of the effort going to waste dollar's work points directly at the problem people pay attention to sunk costs and buy things because the deal feels too good to pass up on you need to know when you're negotiating on the card and when you're negotiating against your own fatigue so if i could reduce this entire episode into one line it would be this when there are no comps your job is to find certainty your job is to build a ceiling you as a collector and a human being can defend that ceiling should be built from substitute scarcity category depth personal utility counterparty psychology and your own financial resilience that ceiling should be defined before the negotiation gets emotional and once you hit it that is where your character shows up because the grail is not just testing your taste it's testing your discipline it's testing whether you know the difference between a once in a lifetime card and a once in a lifetime mistake and sometimes they look very similar in the moment that is why i believe this conversation matters and it matters right now the hobby does not need more noise about monster purchases the hobby needs better thinking around these monster decisions if you are evaluating a grail with little sales history ask yourself what are the best substitutes how often does a real opportunity come around who else can actually buy this what does owning it solve for me what is my real maximum what would i need from the other side beyond price what breaks in my life if i do this and if i miss it am i disappointed or am i damaged those are not the same thing and if you answer those questions honestly you're giving yourself a chance to do the hardest thing in grail collecting not buying not winning deciding well appreciate all of you i hope you're enjoying this mini series here on grails on the flagship episode of stacking slabs hopefully it's helpful hopefully it is good enough that you feel comfortable not only with your grail pursuits but you feel good enough about this content that you'll tell a damn friend about it go tell your friends if you're at a show talk about stacking slabs i am here for you the loyal listener and the collector and would love it if you could share these episodes with a damn friend you all take care we'll be back always and forever happy building happy collecting talk to you soon