what's going on everybody welcome back to stacking slabs your hobby content alternative i'm brett it is the week of the national we are pumping out episodes here on the stacking slabs network because we don't stop we don't care if it is a big event we don't care if there's a lot going on we are dedicated to making sure you the collector you the business builder always has something to turn to when you are on the go in the car going for a run cutting the grass chasing kids doing all the damn things that you do outside of collecting i do appreciate you making stacking slabs a part of your weekly rotation if you are enjoying stacking slabs make sure you hit the follow button tell a damn friend run on over to the patreon group i am loving seeing the stacking slabs network grow i'm excited about the way we are moving the way we are shaking we are here to create thoughtful content thoughtful conversations for this hobby for this industry and we are feeling a lot of energy this week it's the national i'm a little overwhelmed i'm not gonna lie i am getting in on wednesday i'm hitting the ground running i am fully booked and it is going to be exhausting but also very very rewarding in today's episode i wanted to have a conversation about a topic that has been going on across my algorithm something that i'm certainly dealing with and that is the one of one culture of it all and what does it say about collecting right now and i wanted to put this episode out for the individual that is going to the national who stumbles across a one of one card that makes him feel something but will cause tremendous sacrifice i also wanna put this episode out for those that aren't attending the national but are at home with a similar dilemma there are cards that are rare there are cards that are scarce then there are cards where only one person gets to own the copy that's what i wanna talk about the one of one i've noticed more collectors in my circle moving towards one of one cards i'm part of that group i am going through a collection transformation right now i like change i like to mix it up i'm not saying every collector is doing this i'm not saying this is where the hobby is headed i'm not saying your collection becomes more important when the serial number changes from five to one this is an observation it is a reflection on the shift i see among some experienced collectors who have spent years buying selling building changing direction and learning what holds their attention some of those collectors are moving away from quantity and they're moving towards concentration they want fewer cards with more meaning for some people the one of one has become the clearest expression of that choice and i understand why what does the desire to own the only copy tell us about the collector why does the one of one feel more attractive in this moment even though one of one cards have existed for nearly thirty years why do some one of ones become defining pieces while others disappear into the volume of new releases how do you put a price on a a card with no true comp and since this episode is coming out during the national week how should you search for one of ones in a building filled with more cards than you can process the important point is this a one of one is a fact about supply it is not a verdict on quality only one copy exists that tells us nothing by itself about whether the card is important attractive liquid or right for your collection the distinction will run through this entire episode because one of one culture becomes useful when it helps us understand our own personal taste it becomes dangerous when the stamp does all of the thinking for us the modern one of one era is generally traced back to the nineties i think about flir masterpiece parallels from nineteen ninety seven flir used the masterpiece across products including ultraflair showcase the cards took the serial number parallel structure that had grown through the nineties and reduced the print run to an endpoint just one copy the back of the flare showcase masterpiece stated it without hesitation and still as a copy guy as a marketing guy as someone who loves words i love these words the only one of one masterpiece that language matters fleer was not treating the card as a production accident it was building the idea of a singular ownership into the product nearly thirty years later one of those early cards gave us a clean example of what staying power looks like in february of this year heritage sold the nineteen ninety seven ultra masterpiece michael jordan for two point one million dollars heritage described it as the first one of one card produced through jordan and connected it to fleer's introduction of of the masterpiece concept think about everything working together in that card michael jordan nineteen ninety seven flir product the first of the modern one of one chase a design collector's recognize one copy no prior public auction appearance historical importance inside the hobby that card is not valuable because somebody stamped one of one on the back it is valuable because the one of one designation sits on top of player importance product history design timing and decades of collector recognition the number is one part of the chase it is not the entire chase now compare that earlier period with the current product environment one current release can contain several different one of one versions of the same player topps guide for twenty twenty six series one baseball lists a first card one of one a foil fracture one of one retail and value box one of one parallels four one of one printing plates for a card front one of one autograph parallels one of one relic parallels and one of one nameplate relics across the product that does not make those cards bad it changes what the word unique means each card is individually unique the category of one of one cards is abundant that is the central tension in the one of one culture we have absolute scarcity at the card level and expanding supply at the category level a collector can own the only copy of a specific card while knowing that the player has hundreds or thousands of other one of one cards across product years insert sets autograph sets memorabilia sets and printing plates the hobby has moved from one of one being a defining product event to one of one serving as a standard product part of the architecture that change places more responsibility on us the collector the serial number will not separate the lasting piece from the forgotten pieces judgment has to do that if one of ones have been a part of cards since the nineteen nineties why does the interest feel stronger right now than ever before i do not think there is just one answer i think several forces are meeting at the same time the first is the collector experience after years in the hobby you learn that owning more does not always produce more satisfaction early in a collecting life quantity helps you're learning you're trying players sets errors different strategies you need enough exposure to understand your own personal taste the stage has value over time the collection starts giving you feedback you learn which cards you keep pulling out you learn what purchases look better on your phone than they do in your hand you learn which cards you remember six months after selling you learn which lanes keep calling you back at that point some collectors stop asking how much can i add they start asking how much of this deserves to stay that is where concentration enters one of ones fit concentration because they settle a question there is no upgrade within that exact card there is no higher serial number to chase there is no second copy waiting for you after somebody else buys the first ownership feels final in a way that most cards don't the second force is product volume collectors have more releases parallels inserts variations autographs memorabilia cards competing for attention that creates options it can also create fatigue when everything asks to be collected experienced collectors start building stronger filters a one of one offers a simple filter is this the version i want to represent the player product season or the memory if the answer is yes one card can do the work that a group of cards once did the third force is visibility you've got social platforms auction archives collection tools population reports sales databases they've made high end cards easier to see and study i just think about the time i spend with cardladder ladder if you can get lost you can see cards that you thought you've never seen before and you can actually become numb to it by seeing so many incredible cards all at once collectors now build knowledge around cards they might not ever see in person they can trace prior sales identify owners they can follow a card for years that visibility gives singular cards a public life the owner does not only possess the card in some collector communities the owner becomes associated with it that association can create meaning it can also create status pressure we need to be honest about both the fourth force is the growth of trade up thinking more collectors now speak openly about consolidation hell if you listen to stacking slabs consolidation is a pillar of what i talk about here because i like to share my experiences i like to trade up i like to get bigger and better pieces i'm in more of that mode right now than ever before sell five cards by one card hell sell thirty cards by one card move from a group of good cards into one defining card that process gives a collection density more of the value story and attention sit in fewer objects this connects to the work i've done on how one card can change the direction of a collection just been talking about that on the flagship a major card can create that new standard it can make the cards around it look different it can expose what belongs what still matters what no longer fits and what stayed because it forced itself to the surface a one of one can create the effect with more intensity because the card carries a form of finality you did not buy a copy you bought the copy that can sharpen a collection it can also cause the collector to overreact one big acquisition does not require you to sell everything else the next morning concentration is useful when it reflects a preference that has developed over time it becomes rationalization when a large purchase forces you to invent a new identity to defend the money you just spent time is always the test if the direction still makes sense after the transaction loses its emotional charge then make sure you pay attention money is a part of the conversation one of ones often sit at the top of a product's value structure they carry the highest upside when the player set and market all work that financial possibility attracts people it does not explain the full desire the psychology starts with identity we've talked a lot about belk's work on possessions and the extended self collectors understand this your collection is a physical record of what you notice value pursue and you decide to keep the one of one intensifies that relationship the card is singular ownership becomes specific that is mine and nobody else can own the exact card that i'm holding right now if you're a one of one collector or have a one of one you felt that before scarcity research always matters michael lynn's review of commodity theory found broad support for the idea that scarcity increases perceived value and desirability part of that effect comes from what ownership communicates if few people can own an object possession helps a person feel distinct the one of one removes it removes the word few it gives one collector the object and every other collector a story about not owning it there is also relief in the endpoint modern collecting contains endless ladders just think about it you've got base silver color numbered lower numbered autograph patch out of gold black one of one the one of one appears to end the comparison there's no better serial number that can give the collector a sense of completion the catch is the manufacturer can always create another product another image another autograph set another one of one the endpoint exists inside the card it does not exist inside the player's full catalog that is why one of one collecting needs boundaries if your goal is to own every one of one of an active player the supply can grow faster than your ability to keep up if your goal is to own the one card that best represents why you collect that player the one of one can create focus the psychology also includes status we should not pretend it doesn't owning the only copy can establish position inside of a collector group it can generate attention it can become a calling card none of that makes the card meaningless the question is whether the public reaction supports your private interest or replaces it would you want the card if no one else knew you owned it would you keep it if the player's market cooled those questions do not attack the purchase they separate significance from signaling the strongest one of one ownership usually has both public and private value the collector can explain why the card matters to the hobby the collector can also explain why it matters to them sports cards did not invent singular objects fine art gives us the clearest comparison an original painting is a one of one that alone does not make it important the art art market study the artist period subject medium condition authenticity exhibition history ownership history and the place that that piece sits inside inside an artist's body of work christie's describes provenance as the biography of an object a twenty twenty four study published in management science found that stronger provenance information increased the chance an artwork sold and produced a hammer price premiums in the data that researchers studied the lesson for cards is direct uniqueness creates the supply condition context creates demand a one of one card needs a reason for collectors specific object the player creates part of the reason the product creates part the image design autograph memorabilia year story and ownership trail creates the rest game used memorabilia teaches us that same lesson every jersey worn in a game is physically unique collectors do not value every jersey the same way the game matters the performance matters the player matters the proof matters photomatching can connect an item to a date and event psa is described psa describes its photo matching certificate as on the record evidence that supports authenticity with dates details and licensed photography sotheby's auction descriptions lean on this context a tom brady jersey tied to a routine regular season game is unique a brady jersey match to his final college game tells a different story same category different significance that is the lesson collectors need to carry back to cards one of one is not a category of equal objects it is supply designation applied to objects with different levels of meaning the best one of ones feel less like random scarce parallels and more like documented pieces of a player product or a hobby story i use a simple hierarchy when i think about one of ones this is not a price guide it is a better way to answer questions the first group is the foundational one of ones these cards carry historical importance beyond the player the nineteen ninety seven fleer masterpiece is it there they represent the start of a format change for manufacturing and collecting early super fractures from products that established the parallel sit closer to the group than the super fracture issued twenty years later the second group is recognized as flagship one of one this is the top parallel from a product collectors already understand the base card matters the parallel structure matters the one of one completes a known ladder collectors do not need a long explanation to understand where it sits the third group is the content driven one of one the card contains something that gives the singularity weight a player worn shield a nameplate letter a logo and a game dated patch on card autograph a photo tied to a career moment the content can make the card feel singular but the serial stamp confirms it the fourth group is design driven one of one some cards become important because the one of one treatment creates the best looking version the color works the finish work works the design is connected to the product's identity collectors recognize it across the room the fifth group is the production one of one printing plates proofs production materials live there the real one of one objects they also sit differently in collector tastes a printing plate helped create the cards that production connection attracts some collectors other collectors want the finished card and view view the plate as a separate object neither view is wrong the mistake is pricing every one of one as though the market treats them the same the sixth group is the manufactured variation one of one this is a card that becomes unique because the product created many versions colors images formats and assigned one copy to each some of these are great cards some have no clear position beyond their serial number the more explanation required to prove why one of one of one matters the more cautious i tend to become that doesn't mean i won't buy it it just means i need a personal case to the personal case to be strong because the broader market case might be a little weaker when i evaluate whether a one of one has staying power i look at a bunch of different ingredients the subject does the player team character or moment have durable collector demand one copy is still too many when nobody wants the subject product identity can collectors place the card does the brand have history is this a one of one collect one of one collectors expect at the top of a product recognition reduces the amount of education required when the card returns to the market timing first year matters rookie year matters the first year of a product matters the first important one of ones of a player matter a card tied to a championship season record debut or career transition can matter timing gives the card a place in the story content what is physically on this card autograph is it on card is the memorabilia game used player worn event worn or not associated is the patch identifiable does the image connect to a moment collectors remember the serial number cannot fix weak content you've got design an underrated one for me but does this card look like the best version does this one of one treatment support the set's visual identity would collectors recognize it without seeing the back design matters because long term ownership is very very visual you have to want to look at the card after the chase ends you've also got prominence can you document where the card came from has it sold publicly was it pulled in a recorded break has it lived with a known collector providence reduces uncertainty it also adds to the story and we as collectors we love stories and we always remember them you've got collector consensus do the collectors who know the player set agree that the card belongs near the top you don't need universal agreement you need a group of informed collectors who understand the card without a sales pitch lastly you've got ownership case that exists beyond price why would somebody want this card what does it represent a card with no ownership case depends on the next buyer paying more that is a weak foundation for staying power the strongest one of one score well across most of these ingredients the weak ones rely on the serial number to cover the gaps now we get to the part that causes the most tension what's the card worth the honest answer is that the one of one does not have one fixed market price waiting to be found the price is negotiated from evidence interest timing leverage and a willingness of two people to complete a a deal a card that i continue to allude to and i'm getting close to gaining access to it it's taken a lot of sacrifice it took negotiation it took back and forth it is a one of one and it has all the ingredients that i think are very important and a reason why it's the most expensive card i've ever bought murky does not mean random you can build a range i start with five comp lanes lane one is the exact card has it sold before this is very important it's very easy to find in card ladder an old sale is never the current value it's just evidence lane two is the scarcity ladder inside the same set what have the cards versions out of five ten twenty fifty sold for do not apply a universal filter study the pattern lane three is the same player across comparable one of ones stay close in year product tier card type and content obviously rookie year is gonna change things but there's a lot of information that you can gain from studying one player's one of ones lane four is the same product across comparable players study how the market prices of one set one player's one of ones compare to another across different sets lane five is a replacement test if you pass what else can you buy with the same money if you sell what card would you need to replace the meaning this one holds that is not a market comp it is an opportunity cost comp it keeps you from paying a price that only makes sense inside of the negotiation once you have those lanes you can create numbers the evidence range the the ownership premium the walkaway number the evidence range comes from the comps the ownership premium reflects what the card is worth inside your collection the walkaway number protects you from turning irre irreplaceability into an unlimited price one of one sellers often price the pain of never finding the card again have you ever felt that in a conversation before i know that's what i've been pitched before buyers often price the risk of being the only person willing to pay that amount both sides are rational from their position the deal happens when the gap becomes small enough a few practical rules can help separate cash value from trade value do not let two inflated trade values create the appearance of a fair deal price every card in the trade on its own ask the seller how they reach their number you are not asking them to defend the card you are learning what which evidence matters to them do not insult a high ask a one of one owner has the right to hold you have the right to pass keep the relationship intact because today's no can become a yes six months down the road this is the best part about buying cards for me is the back and forth in the building understanding i think the national creates a very very poor environment for patient decisions i recognize this after i think my second national said wait a minute pal i don't think you're quite doing this right i think you are getting bitten by the moment you're surrounded by inventory you're tired people are making decisions you might have a bunch of cash in your pocket you know that a one of one can leave the building and never return to the market urgency is built into the room you need a system before you walk on the floor whatever that system is for you i don't know but you need to figure out what makes the most sense you need to build around the parameters that are deeply personal to you what cash you have to spend what you have to give up in your collection you need to have some understanding don't just go in there blindly i've been talking about this a lot through content here on the stacking slabs network everyone's gonna have fun and i don't want these episodes to be not fun i am just sharing my experience of what's going on in my head as my collection is going through some shifts and which just so happens to be the week of the national where more decisions are being made more vital decisions about our collection are being made this week than in any other week in this industry at scale i keep coming back to this idea collecting one of ones can force a move from a move away from quantity towards quality that can be healthy it can make the collection easier to understand it can direct money and attention towards the cards that carry the most meaning it can reduce the need to buy every release this is a very good feeling i'm having this feeling right now no need to jump and run at every new shiny object it can turn a collection into a smaller group of objects that have a job we need to be precise with the word quality quality does not mean expensive quality does not mean low serial number quality means the card succeeds at what you want your collection to do a base card tied to the first game with your child can carry more quality inside your collection than a one of one you bought because the market told you that it was important a card out of ten with the right image and story can be a better card than the one of one from a product that you don't care about a complete set can create more satisfaction than one concentrated asset there is no universal direction of progress the shift towards one of ones is worth studying because it tells us something about the group of collectors reaching a later stage they have tried accumulation that is me they have lived through the chase that is me they have learned through the collection that it can become harder when it becomes larger i'm feeling that they are trying to increase meaning per card the one of one is a way to do that it is not the only way the risk is the one of one culture turns taste into a competition for serial numbers then the collector stops asking whether the card is good they ask whether anybody else can have it exclusion becomes the product that is not a collection that i wanna build the stronger version is based on stewardship you own the only copy you research it you preserve its history you connect it to the people who understand it you explain why it matters you protect it you give the object more context than it had when it arrived that is where one of one ownership becomes more than just a possession if you're searching for one of one cards at the national i want you to carry a few questions with you is this a good card that happens to be a one of one or is it a one of one only interesting thing about it where does this sit inside the player's catalog where does it sit inside the product what gives it a story that lasts beyond this week there are so many questions that we can ask ourselves the future of one of one cards will not be decided by how many manufacturers create it will be decided by how well collectors separate singularity from significance there will be one of ones there'll be more one of ones there'll be endless one of ones there will still only be a small number that a group of collectors agree are the defining pieces your job is not to collect the stamp think your job as a collector is to understand the card if the card has the player product timing design provenance collector recognition and most importantly personal meaning to hold your attention the one of one designation can make a strong card even stronger if those ingredients are missing the serial number is being asked to do too much that is the observation i'm carrying to the national not every collector needs one of ones not the fewer cards always means a better collection not that the most expensive version is the final version the shift matters because it shows collectors are getting more selective it shows some of us trying to own less and understand more it shows the collection moving from accumulation towards intention and if a one of one helps you build a collection that feels more like yours it has done something very valuable if it only helps you prove that nobody else can own the same card then i think you should be continuing to ask questions safe travels to rosemont illinois this week is going to be absolutely awesome i look forward to connecting with many of you at the show appreciate all of your support make sure you hit the follow button tell a damn friend happy national happy building happy collecting talk to you soon