what's going on everybody welcome back to stacking slabs your hobby content alternative i'm brett flagship episode time coming at you hopefully you're having a good start to your summer enjoying maybe a little getaway here and there keeping the kids busy but also making time for your cards and your collection appreciate you being here supporting stacking slabs make sure you hit the follow button tell a damn friend run on over to the patreon group i think a strong collection is not built by ignoring the market it is built by knowing the difference between your taste market's current opinion community feedback the pressure we get constantly from the algorithm cards your buying for the long term and their real demand the point i always try to make on these episodes is not to tell what collectors to buy but to help collectors build a thinking system before the room gets really really loud and i got a ton of feedback after last week's episode and i was left with several questions myself and so what i wanna do is dig into some of those thoughts and continue the momentum around this topic how do you build a collection that proves you are paying attention before the the room agreed with you we're gonna be digging into that i have a lot of thoughts a lot of notes before we do that gotta shout out inferno red technology the engineering team behind some of the biggest names in sports and collectibles like dc sports eighty seven commsi collectors upper deck and ebay from ai powered solutions for startups to full stack platforms for industry leaders their team can tackle your toughest technology challenge they build awesome software for the hobby for leagues and fans and for everyone in between see what they can build for you at inferno red dot com speaking of inferno red they are going to be doing a event in partnership with jeremy lee at the national enter the inferno if you have a hobby tech idea they wanna hear from you it is going to be an awesome pitch event for builders shaping the future of the hobby live on the main stage at the national ten minutes four judges one stage make sure you check that out you can apply june twenty six you can do that at inferno red dot com backslash enter the inferno so make sure you go check that out gotta shout out all my friends doing awesome stuff in this space we got an episode on the other side of this episode of build for the hobby with my good friend scott lock at inferno red you're not gonna wanna miss that one i promise you that but for now let's get into it let's get into the topic at hand and i wanna pick up where we left off last week and last week we talked about outsourcing your taste we talked about what happens when collectors wait for validation before they trust what they see and i keep coming back to that idea because i think it sits at the center of a premium hobby experience not premium because the card is expensive not premium because the card gets attention premium because the collector is awake alive not a lemming not jumping off a cliff following the person in front of you premium because the collector is making choices with intent premium because the collection reflects a point of view that is where the hobby gets good when you stop asking the room for permission when you stop confusing attention with meaning when you stop treating the market like it has the final say on your enjoyment but after i recorded that episode i had more questions and i think those questions are where the work lives because it's really easy to say trust your taste that sounds good it's a utopia it feels good but what does that mean when you're spending real money what does that mean when the market is moving what does that mean when a card you love has no recent comps what does it mean when your group chat says you're insane what does this mean when you're trying to build something that feels like yours but you are also aware that these cards trade in a real market that is what i wanna get into today this episode is about collection building considerations not what to collect how to think because i do not think the question is what should i buy the better question is what kind of collector am i becoming through the decisions i am making that question is heavier it forces you to look at your patterns it forces you to look at your input it's it forces you to admit when your collection is being shaped by your own interest and when it is shaped by the market's mood and that is the work because a collection is not only a group of cards i think a collection is evidence it's evidence of what you value what you notice what you chase what you pass on it's evidence of what you understand and sometimes evidence of what has been influencing you without you realizing it so i wanna walk through five questions today how do collectors identify opportunities before consensus forms how do you separate overlooked cards from cards that lack demand how do you balance personal conviction and market realities what role should community feedback play in shaping your collection and finally how do you measure whether your collection reflects your own interest versus the market's influence that is where we're going not towards a list but a system because the collector with a system does not need the room to agree first the collector with a system can listen to the room without being controlled by it and that is a really big difference and these are the topics i'm thinking about these are the questions i'm thinking about as i'm observing the hobby landscape as i'm building out my own personal collection and as i'm building out stacking slabs and i am fortunate enough that i can bring them to life here on this platform and hopefully give you some perspective on where my head is at so let's dive into the first why independent thinking is not the same as random taste i think independent thinking in this hobby does not mean you collect random cards it does not mean you buy the thing nobody else wants and calls you call it yourself early it doesn't mean every unpopular card is misunderstood that is a trap and a lot of collectors here trust your taste and turn it into permission to ignore information that is not what we're talking about independent thinking is not anti market independent thinking is is an anti community independent thinking is not pretending demand does not matter independent thinking is the ability to separate your signal from everyone else's noise it's the ability to say here's what i like here's why i like it here's what the market thinks about it here is what the market might be missing and here is where i might be wrong and that last part really matters because taste without humility turns into stubbornness and stubbornness gets really expensive strong collectors are not stubborn they're observant they notice things before other people care they build context before other people need proof they understand why a card matters to them before asking why it should matter to everyone else this is where i think the hobby gets confused we treat consensus like the truth but consensus is not the truth consensus is a receipt consensus tells you the room has already processed the idea by the time consensus forms the easy part of the opportunity is passed that does not mean the card is bad that does not mean it can't go higher it doesn't mean you can't still want it it means you are no longer early you are now participating in agreement and there is nothing wrong with that as long as you know what you're doing the mistake i see is buying consensus and calling it conviction it happens all the time a card gets posted player gets hot say it gets talked about a dealer says something is drying up few comps hits and someone says these are impossible then the collector feels urgency not because the card becomes more meaningful because the room gets louder that's not taste it's pressure and pressure has a way of dressing itself up as conviction so when we talk about collection building considerations i wanna slow the process down before the buy for the comp for the group chat for the post before the show pickup ask what did i see before someone told me to see it think that question will tell you a lot it will tell you whether you are developing an eye or borrowing someone else's so let's talk about the opportunity that is a word that gets thrown around a lot in the hobby i say it all of the time most of the time when someone says opportunity they mean price they mean cheap they mean undervalued they mean there is room for the number to move that's part of it but if you're building a collection opportunity is a bra is broader than price opportunity is the gap between meaning and recognition the gap between meaning and recognition a card can have meaning before the market recognizes it a player can have meaning before the hobby agrees a set can have meaning before collectors revisit it and a moment can have meeting before it becomes part of the story this is where independent collectors operate they don't guess blindly they study gaps i think there are some places to look first one of the things i try to do and i'm trying to do more of as i continue to build and develop my collection is look for cultural relevance that has not converted into card demand yet this is when the person the moment the story matters somewhere else before it matters in card prices maybe the athlete has a fan base that is growing but the card hasn't caught up maybe the player has a cult following in a small pocket but it's doesn't have broad hobby demand i think this all matters because the card market often lags culture collectors like to think that the card market is smart sometimes it is but a lot of the times it's reactive the market waits for proof comps content it waits for someone with an audience to say the thing out loud the collector with a point of view does not have to wait for that they can say this person matters this moment matters this design matters the set matters this scarcity matters and the market has not fully priced it yet this is not a buy signal by itself but it's a research signal second i think look for supply that is misunderstood this is where collectors need to do the work a card might feel common because you see it often but what version are you seeing raw low grade high grade base serial number autograph the exact card matters the condition sensitive sensitivity matters the pop report matters the number of copies matter there are cards with high printed supply but low high grade supply there are cards with low numbered supply but no buyer depth there are cards that sit in collections and rarely come out there are cards that show up often because no one cares those are not the same thing this is why rare is not enough a card can be rare and still not mattered a card can be available and still be important the collector has to ask the better question is the supply limited in a way that matters to the demand base in a way that matters deeply to the demand base because scarcity by itself does not create demand scarcity matters only when people care third look for aesthetic and set importance because before it becomes nostalgia this is close to the heart for a lot of collectors there are a lot of sets people did not fully appreciate when they were released there are designs that age into significance i just think about like examples the first prism twenty twelve i keep bringing up metal universe pmgs like at the time of the release people didn't really care about these cards but now they are grouped together as some of the hobby's most important cards there are parallels that look like noise at a time and later become a defining version there are inserts that carry an era there are cards that you tell where the hobby was at a specific point in time the market often takes time to understand design at release people chase what is obvious what's obvious rookie logos golds low serial number autographs case hits but years later collectors start asking different questions or at least i have asked myself different questions what felt like a set what card captured the player what design held up these questions matter the kind of question helps collectors get a hell head of consensus not because you're guessing but because you're studying how memory forms fourth look for narrative lag narrative lag is when the story has changed but the card market still prices the old version of the story i did a whole episode on my twenty twenty five john cena superfractor one of one there was narrative lag there this card was important it was his final year it was his fourth superfractor but the but but the the market hadn't caught up yet and i think a player becomes more respected than hype a player ages into legacy a role player maybe becomes a cultural favorite or a champion gets understood in a different way i think this is happening right now with jalen brunson a card that once felt secondary becomes central because the story around the player changes this is where the hobby can be slow because the hobby likes categories prospect star bus goat overrated underrated the market pulls people into boxes then it takes time to update those a collector who watches closely can see the update coming fifth look for collector repetition before price movement it's a real signal not hype repetition are the same types of collectors quietly asking about the same cards are collectors with taste keeping certain things instead of flipping them if you identify someone in this space who is a flipper and is constantly moving cards and you're friendly with them just ask the question like what are you what are you holding on to if anything and if they have something it's interesting to get that insight what they care and i'm not saying go then go buy it but it's it gives you some sort of evidence on what people appreciate i think it matters because before consensus shows up in price it shows up in behavior not loud behavior quiet behavior save searches trade requests dms conversations at showcase is collectors comparing different versions the early signal is not always the comp sometimes the early signal is just curiosity and if you're paying attention curiosity tells you where the room might walk to next okay i've already shared a lot but let's try to make things maybe a little more practical because again trust your eye is not enough you need a system i'm a system thinker i am beginning to interject that line of operating into these episodes because the more i lean into my system the more i enjoy my collection i'm hoping that if you have a system that's not my system but your own you can enjoy your collection as much as i'm enjoying mine and you need a system here is a system that i think should be worth consideration the first step write down the card before you look up the price it sounds simple but it changes the order of influence most collectors let price tell them whether they care they see a big number and assume importance they see a small number and assume weakness reverse that before you look up the number write down why the card has your attention player design scarcity story all those things collector base you want your reason recorded before the market gets to vote next step build the counter case ask yourself why does the market not carry it that question is your best friend not why am i right ask why others have not arrived there are a few possible answers they have not noticed the card is hard to understand the player's story is developing the category is out of favor the supply is hidden the set is not respected yet those answers all aren't equal some are opportunity some are warning your job is to know which number three map the substitutes this is where a lot of collectors miss every card competes for attention with other cards if i want one card of this player what are my choices if i want one card from this year what are my choices if i want one card from the set what are my choices if i want one rare version what are my choices if i want one card that tells the story what are my choices your card doesn't live alone it sits in a choice set and if there is another car that tells the story better has stronger demand and has better liquidity and more collector recognition then your opportunity might be weaker than you think step four study sale quality not sale price a comp is not a conclusion a comp is a clue it's a piece of evidence who bought it where did it sell what format how many bidders is the sale a pattern public or private all these things a card with one high comp is not the same as a card with repeated demand a card with five real buyers is different from a card with one emotional buyer a card that sells across platforms is different from a card that only moves when a seller finds one person this topic is so interesting to me and i've never sat down to try to break it down and consider all the different components of it but i think it really matters and perhaps in a future date i'll do entire dedicated episode on it because it's something i'm thinking about all of the time step five decide what role the card plays in your collection this is the step that turns buying into collecting core card research card liquidity card memory card category anchor trade piece is this a card you want to hold even if nobody else cares these are the types of questions i was asking myself before i bought that john cena superfractor it was a part of my system every card does not need the same job but every card needs a job because when cards do not have jobs they become clutter and clutter is often what happens when a collector is reacting instead of building now let's get into the question that matters most for anyone trying to think before consensus forms how do you know if a card is overlooked how do you know if a card lacks demand this is where collectors need to be honest because overlooked is one of the most abused words in the hobby a lot of the time overlooked means i own it and wish more people cared you ever heard that just look at their page you see a bunch of cards like that happens all the time it's not analysis it's attachment an overlooked card has a reason people should care and a reason they have not cared yet a card that lacks demand has one or both of those missing so let's build the test the first question is there a real audience for this card not in theory in reality who wants it player collectors set collectors team collectors registry collectors era collectors collectors international collectors prospectors vintage collectors autograph collectors design collectors nostalgia collectors these questions should make you consider that the hobby is very vast and very diverse and maybe you've never even taken these considerations or questions into consideration when you're making your purchases but i promise you if you do this based on your system you will get come to better conclusions and you'll make those conclusions quicker if you can't name the audience you don't have demand you have hope the next question does this card sit at the intersection of more than one audience that's important because the strongest cards have multiple demand lanes player collector wants it set collector wants it registry collector wants it team collector wants it i always when i think about this topic i always go to charles woodson and you you you wonder it's like can't you find charles woodson's cards why is charles woodson's cards expensive why are they such in demand well you've got a lot going on there you have heisman collectors you've got michigan collectors you've got hall of fame collectors collectors you've got raiders collectors i mean it just goes on and on and that creates depth and depth matters because when one buyer type goes away another buyer type can remain a card with one narrow audience can still be great but you need to size the risk correctly third question is the card hard to replace this is different from rare hard to replace means if you pass up on this copy you might not see another copy for a long time i talked about the double bin smash of the twenty fifteen frank gore prism gold and gold vinyl those cards if i did not smash bin would i would have missed them and they would have been impossible to replace you know why why i know that because i have been collecting colts gold prism cards every day for the last five years and had never seen those cards before a card can have many copies and still be hard to replace and with ten five those might seem a lot of like a lot of copies in today's hobby based on the proliferation of one of ones but i would much rather have this gold or gold vinyl frank core than almost any other frank gore card that exists a card can be numbered to ten and be easier to replace emotionally because no one cares which copy you own but in some instances it can be impossible to replace like these frank or cards again scarcity isn't enough would the right collector feel the pain if they miss one i know if i woke up that morning and saw that that card had sold on cardlider i would have lost my mind the next question is there enough evidence of quiet demand this is where sales history helps but it's not the whole picture picture are the copies getting absorbed do sellers hold firm do collectors ask for these cards privately does it move outside the hype window i think that last one matters a card that only sells when the player is in the news is event driven a card that sells when nothing has happened happening has collector demand those are different fifth question is the market ignoring the card for a reason that makes sense sometimes the market is not wrong sometimes the card is cheap because the demand is thin sometimes the card is rare because nobody opened the product but nobody wants the singles sometimes the set is forgotten because it didn't matter sometimes the seller thinks the card is underappreciated but the market has already made fair judgment it's not cruel it's collecting not every card you love needs to become a market darling there is a freedom in coming to terms with that you can own a card because it matters to you but don't confuse personal meeting with hidden demand that is where collectors get hurt they buy emotional cards with market expectations i do this all the time then they blame the hobby when the market doesn't respond call the card what it is if it is personal let it be personal if it's a market thesis make it prove itself if it is both know which side you are leaning on when the price moves i think this brings us to conviction and as i'm digging into conviction i'm realizing we're going broadway here on the flagship because there's a lot of depth to this episode and maybe i should have known that as i presented five questions up top but i think conviction is one of those words that sounds noble collectors love to say conviction i say conviction but conviction has to be earned it's not a feeling it's not a conviction is a position you can explain after pressure shows up it's easy to have conviction the day you buy the card it's a lot harder when the price drops it's harder when nothing sells it's harder when another card runs and yours does not it's harder when your friend tells you that you bought the wrong version it's harder when the market ignores your thesis for years that is when you learn what you bought so how do you balance personal conviction with market reality you separate emotional return from financial expectation i think that's the first part some cards you pay for enjoy i do it all the time with my colts collection i have bought a lot of cards early that are really expensive now but i'm telling you what i've been i've overpaid for so many and i don't really care just because i need them in my collection and i think that's identity and that's memory and that's access to a story i care about and that's very important to me but some cards might not be that but i think you need to know what kind of return you expect if you plan on selling the card because a card that gives you an emotional returns does not have to beat the market to be worth owning very important very important to crystallize here but a card you buy as a market thesis needs evidence this is where i like the idea of a conviction budget not every dollar in your collection should carry the same expectation you can have a core part of your collection that is deeply personal you can have part of your collection that is focused on cards with proven demand you can have a smaller part where you take taste based shots before convention consensus forms the collectors have been doing this for a long time have a system they understand their conviction they understand risk mitigation in the bets that they're placing but don't mix the buckets of those two the problem comes when a collector takes a taste shot spends core card money than expects market liquidity that's a mismatch and mismatches create stress if you're buying a card because you see something the market doesn't size the purchase like you might be early wrong or alone it's not fear it's discipline the market can be slow the market can be irrational the market can miss things but the market also does not owe you agreement the market doesn't owe you agreement it does not owe you liquidity does not owe you another comp so it's important to ask can i hold the card without needing the market to validate me soon if the answer is no your conviction is not strong enough for the position don't buy the card this is the system i am running all the time all the time it might mean buy less or wait a disciplined collector does not have to be first a disciplined collector has to be clear another way to balance conviction in market reality is to pre write your wrong conditions before you buy write this down what would make me wrong why would what would make my thesis wrong beat it to shit i don't know if you've ever had a boss or a manager that you really appreciate and respect and you come to them with ideas and you know going into that that they're going to slice up your idea those moments in my career always mattered because it got me to think a little bit differently and that was really important to get challenged if you can't name what would make you wrong you're not holding conviction you're holding attachment and attachment can look like conviction from inside but that's the danger the more you love a card the more you need a process around it not because love is bad love is the point but love changes your math love makes you explain away weak signals love makes every low offer feel disrespectful love makes you see your card as the card this is part of being human and part of being a collector but it's not always useful the best collectors protect their love with structure they say this is why i own it this is what it means to me this is where i disagree this is the time horizon this is the role it plays this is how you collect with conviction without becoming reckless now let's take a moment to talk about community i think this is the part because i do not want this episode to sound like the answer in isolation because it's not the answer is not to ignore everyone the answer is to not leave every group chat the hobby's better with people a collection built with no connection can become stale you need conversation you need challenge you need collectors showing things that you missed it's valuable community feedback should be a mirror not a steering wheel a mirror helps you see a steering wheel decides where you go too many collectors hand the steering wheel to the community they buy because of reaction they sell because someone laughed they upgrade because someone said the holder was not good enough this happens all the time that is how a collection stopped being yours not at once little by little one reaction at a time one post at a time one show conversation at a time and then one day you look at your collection and realize it is a record of what other people rewarded so it's how should we use feedback don't ask do you like the card the question invites taste judgment ask what am i missing who is the buyer if i ever need to move this does this have staying power would i rather own this or adjacent card those are the types of questions that use community for perspective but not permission that is the right relationship you also need to know who you're asking because not every collector is qualified to give you feedback on every card and i know it sounds harsh but it's true collectors understand specific categories find the collectors that deeply understand category if you want valuable feedback when you ask the wrong person think about that as a position i get questions all the time about people about cards and questions i have no idea about it's a strange position to be in it's dangerous a person can be smart and still wrong these are the types of things i think about all the time community is really valuable but you got to make sure you are zeroed in on the right questions to the right collectors time to get a little personal here how do you know if your collection reflects your own interest versus market influence that is uncomfortable because most of us want to believe that our collection is yours and in one sense it is we bought the cards we chose them we own them but the deeper question is who trained your wanting that is the question who trained your wanting was it your memory your eye history with the sport there is a million questions you can ask no collector is free from influence that's not the goal the goal is awareness and make sure you place audits to this if you really wanna get serious about it you can begin to audit your last purchases and understand those questions i think when you audit your purchases it's when you begin to inform your identity not only in what you buy but also what you pass on what you refuse so we are marching ahead here and i wanna make sure that i've given a lot here and hopefully it's helpful to you but i wanna leave you with what i would call an operating system a collector operating system four parts taste evidence constraint reflection taste tells you what gets your attention evidence tells you whether the market gives your idea any support constraint tells you what does and does not belong and reflection tells you whether your behavior matches your stated goals most collectors overuse the first two they say i like it then they check the comp they say that's enough you need constraint you need to know what you are not doing i'm not chasing every player i'm not buying every parallel i'm not adding cards that only impress other collectors i'm not buying outside the lane unless i can explain the role i am not using low pop as a shortcut for importance i'm treating every dip as an opportunity i'm not calling every cheap card overlooked i'm not confusing content with demand that kind of constraint gives your collection shape you need reflection once a month look at what you buy not what you own what you buy your recent purchases tell the truth they show content influences they show your discipline they show your weak spots they show whether you are building or reacting you can ask yourself what did i buy because i studied it what did i buy because i was bored what did i buy because i feel pressure these are the types of reflective questions that can be transformative they give you information and when you ask yourself those questions and you begin to understand you begin to get your taste or understand your taste or maybe get your taste back if you've lost it this has been a heavy episode there is so much to dig into and so much to share as i'm delivering it i'm thinking man there are a lot of episodes inside this that i could go broadway on but i love this i appreciate your engagement you listening and i i don't take you listening to these types of ideas for granted i value that and i wanna end here it's time to put a bow on this episode the hobby is not short on cards it is not short on content it is not short on opinions it is not short on data it is not short on people telling you what matters the scarce thing isn't information the scarce thing is independent judgment that is what collectors need to develop because independent judgment is what turns access into taste it turns money into meaning it turns a pile of cards into a collection and it turns a collection into something that reflects the person building it that's the work not asking what should i collect asking what do i notice why do i notice it what do i believe what does the market say where can i be early where can i be wrong that's collection building that is the difference between collecting from inside out and collecting from outside in the outside in collector waits for validation the inside out collector builds a point of view tests it and lets the collection become proof of the work so audit do the audit pick your ten cards write down why each one is there write down what you what you desire where the desire started where it still fits whether you'd buy it again not because you need to sell everything that failed the test because you need to know what your collection is teaching you and maybe the real that's the real premium of a hobby experience not owning the card everyone agrees on owning a collection that helps you understand yourself a little bit better that is where the hobby gap gets deep that is where it gets personal and that is where it becomes yours appreciate all your support thank you so much for supporting stacking slabs your hobby content alternative hope you got value from this episode and all the other shows we're building here on the platform we are in a scale mode we are going and going and going and we're not gonna stop because we believe in what we're doing over here at stacking slabs and that is to help you the passionate collector consider how you are thinking about approaching your hobby and approaching your collection not telling you what to do but giving you some ideas on how to think appreciate all your support take care we'll be back soon